2024 年原奶供给去化提速，2025 年有望延续出清态势。根据国家统计局数据，2024 年Q3/Q4 我国牛奶产量分别为1046/1177 万吨，分别同比减少5.8%/9%。Q4 牛奶产量降幅环比扩大，主因原奶产能持续下行。参考行业协会数据，我们估算2024Q3 末行业奶牛存栏在620~630 万头左右，而2024 年末奶牛存栏下降至620 万头以下，全年维度奶牛存栏同比减少约中单位数。分区域看，参考《荷斯坦》数据，山东、山西、甘肃、江苏等升分奶牛存栏降幅达到两位数以上。2024Q4 以来主产区生鲜乳均价维持在3.11~3.13 元/Kg，低于社会牧场平均公斤奶现金成本，考虑到春节后进入乳制品消费淡季，预计原奶价格短期依然会阶段性承压，加大牧场端经营压力，那么2025Q2 有望再次迎来产能出清。Key investment points:
Incident: Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that milk production for the full year of 2024 was 40.79 million tons, down 2.8% year on year. Among them, milk production in the fourth quarter was 11.77 million tons, down 9% year on year. The year-on-year decline in milk production increased, reflecting the continued clear supply in the dairy industry.
Investment rating and valuation: Maintain profit forecasts and predict that the company will achieve net profit of 120, 113.2, and 12.17 billion from 2024 to 2026, +15%, -6%, and +8%, respectively. The latest closing price corresponding to 24-26 PE is 15x, 15x, and 14x, respectively. Of these, net profit is predicted to be around 10 billion in 2024 after excluding the one-time impact of the sale of assets in the first quarter. The company's leading position and medium- to long-term growth space remain unchanged. In terms of liquid milk, there is still room for improvement in the penetration rate of high-end categories; in terms of milk powder, with the elimination of small and medium-sized enterprises, the trend of concentration of leading enterprises remains unchanged. As the upstream raw milk supply clears up, the supply and demand pattern improves, future inventory and credit impairment pressures ease, and future profitability is expected to increase. At present, the company's valuation is already at a low level after ten years of continuous correction. Considering that it has maintained a dividend rate of 70% or more for the past 3 years, the valuation is highly cost-effective, and the purchase rating has been maintained.
The supply of raw milk will accelerate in 2024, and the clean-up trend is expected to continue in 2025. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024 Q3/Q4, China's milk production was 10.46/11.77 million tons, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%/9%. Q4 The decline in milk production increased month-on-month, mainly due to the continued decline in raw milk production capacity. Referring to industry association data, we estimate that the number of dairy cows in the industry at the end of 2024Q3 was around 620 to 6.3 million, while the number of dairy cows in the year-end 2024 fell below 6.2 million. The annual dimensional dairy cow inventory decreased by about the average number of units over the same period last year. Looking at the subregions, with reference to the “Holstein” data, the decline in dairy cows in Shandong, Shanxi, Gansu, and Jiangsu has reached more than double digits. Since 2024Q4, the average price of fresh milk in major production areas has remained at 3.11 to 3.13 yuan/kg, which is lower than the average cash cost of milk in social ranches. Considering the low season for dairy consumption after the Spring Festival, it is expected that raw milk prices will still be under phased pressure in the short term, increasing pressure on ranch-side operations, so 2025Q2 is expected to once again usher in a clear production capacity.
Channel inventory was good before the Spring Festival, and the 2025 youth lineup is expected to improve. We expect that the current Yili liquid milk terminal inventory days will be within 1 month, which is lower than the same period last year. Dealers' inventory pressure is low, and it is expected that there will be no pressure to manage channel inventory freshness in 2025. Looking ahead to 2025, if the price of raw milk stabilizes, then inventory depreciation performance will be significantly improved. At the same time, along with the withdrawal of low-priced milk sources, competitive pressure is expected to ease to a certain extent. If demand for terminals remains stable in 2025, then the company can still hope to improve profitability through product restructuring and optimizing cost investment efficiency.
Risk warning: Deterioration of the competitive landscape, food safety incidents.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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