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Best Stock Traits to Look for as Markets Tumble

Best Stock Traits to Look for as Markets Tumble

在市场暴跌中寻找最好的股票特征
finviz ·  2020/02/28 22:27

As February draws to a close, U.S. markets continue their downslide as fears of the new coronavirus (Covid-19) abound. In midday trading as of Feb. 28, the S&P 500 is down 13.09% from the previous week, marking the fastest correction since the financial crisis in 2008.

随着2月份接近尾声,美国市场继续下跌,因为人们对新冠状病毒(Covid-19)的担忧不断。截至2月28日的午盘交易中,标准普尔500指数较前一周下跌13.09%,这是自2008年金融危机以来调整最快的一次。

While stock prices inevitably take a hit during market corrections and recessions, their underlying companies may not all suffer as much as the general investing public fears. For example, people may buy fewer luxury goods in financially lean times, but few (if any) are going to stop buying essentials like food, toothpaste and toilet paper.

虽然股票价格不可避免地会在市场调整和衰退期间受到冲击,但它们的潜在公司可能不会像一般投资公众所担心的那样遭受同样大的损失。例如,在经济拮据的时候,人们购买奢侈品的数量可能会减少,但很少有人(如果有的话)会停止购买食品、牙膏和卫生纸等必需品。

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with JNJ. Click here to check it out.

警告!GuruFocus与JNJ共检测到5个警告信号。点击这里查看。

JNJ 30-Year Financial Data

JNJ 30年财务数据

The intrinsic value of JNJ

JNJ的内在价值

Peter Lynch Chart of JNJ

JNJ的彼得·林奇图

Each company has its own unique set of advantages and disadvantages, but in general, a stock is more immune to declining economic conditions if it has a good balance sheet, is valued fairly, supplies essential products that need to be frequently purchased and has little or no connection to whichever factors triggered said declining economic conditions.

每家公司都有自己独特的优势和劣势,但一般而言,如果一只股票拥有良好的资产负债表、估值公平、供应需要频繁购买的基本产品,并且与任何引发衰退的经济状况几乎或根本没有关系,那么它就更不会受到经济状况恶化的影响。

Good balance sheet

良好的资产负债表

Debt is cheap in the U.S. It's been that way since the financial crisis in 2008, when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to stimulate the flagging economy. When the economy strengthened, the Fed kept on lowering interest rates in order to stave off the next crisis for as long as possible, which sent companies on a decade-long debt binge that has destroyed their balance sheets.

美国的债务很便宜,自2008年金融危机以来一直如此,当时美联储(FederalReserve)降低了利率,以刺激萎靡不振的经济。当经济走强时,美联储继续降低利率,以尽可能长时间地避免下一次危机,这使得企业陷入了长达十年的债务狂潮,破坏了它们的资产负债表。

When debt is cheap, it's easy to get caught in the trap of borrowing as much as you can in order to make your business prosper. Even if your business prospers, however, it might not be enough to make ends meet, in which case you can just take on more cheap debt in order to pay the bills. This is why the balance sheets of U.S. companies are looking worse than ever, and it is also why increasing numbers of billion-dollar investment firms are taking huge stakes in companies that they would have rejected decades ago for being free cash flow negative.

当债务便宜的时候,你很容易陷入举债的陷阱,为了让你的生意兴旺起来。然而,即使你的生意兴旺,也不足以维持收支平衡,在这种情况下,你就可以承担更多的廉价债务来支付账单。这就是为什么美国公司的资产负债表看起来比以往任何时候都糟糕,也是为什么越来越多的数以十亿美元计的投资公司在几十年前因为自由现金流为负值而拒绝入股的原因。

The problem here is that debt acts as leverage. When a company prospers, borrowing money can multiply profits, but as soon as the market takes a sharp enough turn for the worse, that borrowed money will multiply losses instead. One of the best examples of this is the collapse of the subprime mortgage market that triggered the Great Recession, in which the ownership of debt that had been so profitable in the past sent giants like Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual straight to Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

这里的问题是债务起到杠杆作用。当一家公司生意兴隆时,借钱可以使利润成倍增长,但一旦市场急剧转坏,借来的钱反而会使亏损倍增。这方面最好的例子之一是次级抵押贷款市场的崩溃,它引发了大衰退。在这场危机中,过去利润丰厚的债务所有权,使得雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)和华盛顿互惠银行(Washington Interactive)等巨头直接破产。

Thus, the companies that will see their profits take the least hits during market downturns are those whose balance sheets are in good shape. An easy way to find such companies is to utilize GuruFocus'sAll-in-One Screener, a Premium feature, which allows users to screen for companies based on factors such as interest coverage, cash-debt ratio, Altman Z-score, financial strength rating and more.

因此,在市场低迷时期,那些资产负债表状况良好的公司,其利润受到的冲击最小。要找到这样的公司,一个简单的方法是利用GuruFocus‘sAll-in-One Screener,这是一个高级功能,允许用户根据利率覆盖范围、现金负债率、Altman Z评分、财务实力评级等因素来筛选公司。

One example of a company with good financial strength is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), a major drug manufacturer and supplier of consumer health products, which has a GuruFocus financial strength score of 7 out of 10. The cash-debt ratio of 0.61 is above average for the industry, while the interest coverage of 63.14% indicates the company has plenty of funds to pay interest on its debt. The current ratio of 1.26 means that it can pay off short-term debt, while the Altman Z-score of 4.25 indicates longer-term financial stability.

强生(纽约证券交易所市场代码:JNJ)是一家拥有良好财务实力的公司。强生是一家主要的药品制造商和消费者健康产品供应商,其GuruFocus财务实力得分为十分之七。该行业的现金负债率为0.61,高于行业平均水平,而63.14%的利息覆盖率表明,该公司有足够的资金支付债务利息。目前1.26的比率意味着它可以偿还短期债务,而Altman Z得分为4.25表示金融长期稳定。

Valued fairly

价值公平

Another factor that can leverage losses during market downturns is overvaluation. When stocks are trading higher than what their underlying companies are worth, they are more likely to see their share prices take a significant hit as the optimism that they were built on crumbles.

另一个能在市场低迷时期影响损失的因素是估值过高。当股票的交易价格高于其潜在公司的价值时,他们更有可能看到自己的股价受到重大打击,因为他们对股价的乐观情绪是建立在崩溃的基础上的。

Take Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), for example. The electric vehicle and clean energy company skyrocketed to infamy in the investing world after posting its second consecutive quarter of net profits for the fourth quarter of 2019. Speculators bid shares up from $300 to over $900 in less than two months, only to see them trade down to around $650 on worries that the coronavirus-related closure of the company's Shanghai Gigafactory will push net income back into the red.

以特斯拉公司为例。(纳斯达克市场:TSLA),例如。这家电动汽车和清洁能源公司在2019年第四季度连续第二个季度实现净利润后,在投资界大声疾呼。投机者在不到两个月的时间内将股价从300美元涨至900美元以上,但由于担心与冠状病毒相关的关停上海嘉汉林业(Shanghai Gigafacori)将使净利润再次出现亏损,他们的股价跌至650美元左右。

The foundation of value investing is to not buy shares of a company if they are trading above their intrinsic value, a metric which can sometimes be difficult to assess. The price-earnings ratio is often considered the rule of thumb, but there are many exceptions. For example, cyclical companies such as Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) and other automobile manufacturers often trade near their lowest price-earnings ratios right before the end of a cyclical upswing.

价值投资的基础是,如果一家公司的股票高于其内在价值,则不购买它们的股票,这是一种有时很难评估的指标。市盈率通常被认为是经验法则,但也有许多例外.例如,福特汽车公司(FordMotorCo.)等周期性公司。纽约证券交易所(NYSE:F)和其他汽车制造商通常在周期性上涨结束前,市盈率接近最低水平。

One sign of an impending market correction is the overvaluation of the stock market in general. As the U.S. economy has climbed toward a record overvalued range on the wings of cheap debt, finding stocks that are trading near or below their intrinsic value has become more difficult.

市场回调即将来临的一个迹象是,股市总体估值过高。随着美国经济在廉价债券的推动下攀升至创纪录的高估区间,寻找接近或低于其内在价值的股票变得更加困难。

Even renowned value investorWarren Buffett(Trades,Portfolio)has been sitting on a cash pile of $128 billion for the past year due to the lack of big value opportunities. "Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects," Buffett wrote in his 2019 annual letter to shareholders.

就连著名的价值投资者沃伦·巴菲特(Trades,Portfolio),由于缺乏巨大的价值机会,在过去的一年里也坐拥1,280亿美元的现金储备。巴菲特在给股东的2019年年度信中写道:“对于那些有着良好的长期前景的企业来说,价格是极高的。”

A potential U.S. value opportunity could be Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB), a biotech company that develops drugs for the treatment of neurological and neurodegenerative diseases and disorders. It has a GuruFocus valuation rating of 8 out of 10 and, according to the Peter Lynch chart, the stock is trading below what its earnings are worth.

生物原(NASDAQ:BIIB)是一家开发治疗神经和神经退行性疾病和疾病的药物的生物技术公司。该公司的GuruFocus估值为十分之八,根据彼得·林奇(PeterLynch)的图表,其股价低于其盈利水平。

Essential products

基本产品

Perhaps the most reliable predictor of steady profits is when a company sells products that customers must buy regularly, either out of necessity or in order to keep up a basic standard of living quality. No matter how bad the economy gets, people are unable to stop buying food and extremely unlikely to give up things like toothpaste, toilet paper and soap.

也许,稳定利润的最可靠的预测指标是,一家公司销售客户必须定期购买的产品,无论是出于必要,还是为了维持基本的生活质量。无论经济变得多么糟糕,人们都无法停止购买食物,而且极不可能放弃牙膏、卫生纸和肥皂之类的东西。

Companies in this space tend to have strong financials as well, with the exception of food companies. Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), which both sell a wide variety of daily necessities, both have high financial strength ratings from GuruFocus.

这一领域的公司往往也有强劲的财务状况,但食品公司除外。强生公司(Johnson&Johnson)和宝洁公司(Procter&Gamble,纽约证券交易所市场代码:PG)都销售各种各样的日用品,这两家公司都获得了GuruFocus的高财务实力评级。

The packaged foods industry can also provide a source of stable, recession-proof stocks. General Mills (NYSE:GIS), for example, saw its revenue grow steadily through the past three recessions.

包装食品行业也可以提供一个稳定的,经济衰退的库存来源。例如,通用磨坊(纽约证券交易所市场代码:GIS)在过去三次衰退中收入稳步增长。

Though not a physical product, the services of payment processing companies like Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Visa (NYSE:V) and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) can also be defined as essential for the U.S. It's easier to pay with a card than cash, and online purchases almost always must be made by card. However, it should be noted that in the case of a full-blown recession, it is possible that any increase in profits may be mitigated by consumers spending less money overall. While this did not happen to Mastercard or Visa during the last recession, it becomes more of a possibility as a higher percentage of payments are processed electronically.

虽然不是实体产品,但Mastercard(纽约证券交易所市场代码:Ma)、Visa(纽约证券交易所市场代码:V)和PayPal(纳斯达克市场代码:PYPL)等支付处理公司的服务也可以被定义为对美国至关重要。用信用卡支付比用现金更容易,在线购物几乎总是必须通过信用卡进行。然而,应该指出的是,在全面衰退的情况下,任何利润的增长都有可能因消费者整体消费减少而减少。虽然在上一次衰退期间,万事达或维萨没有发生这种情况,但随着电子支付比例的提高,这种可能性更大。

No connection to triggers

没有与触发器的连接

Lastly, whenever trouble starts to boil in the economy, it's typically best to stay out of investments that have a significant stake in whatever triggered the problems, at least until more information becomes available. When the situation is still unclear, it is easier to make a miscalculation.

最后,每当经济问题开始激化时,通常最好是避开那些与引发问题的因素有重大利害关系的投资,至少在获得更多信息之前是这样。当情况尚不明朗时,更容易作出错误估计。

On the surface level, we see that far fewer people were buying tech stocks after the dotcom bubble burst, and no one wanted bank stocks after the mortgage crisis. With the outbreak of the new coronavirus, investors are now pulling their money out of the stocks of companies that have supply chains in China, including giants like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

从表面上看,在互联网泡沫破裂后,购买科技股的人要少得多,而且在抵押贷款危机之后,没有人想买银行股。随着新冠状病毒(Coronavirus)的爆发,投资者现在正从中国有供应链的公司的股票中撤出资金,其中包括苹果(Apple)和微软(Microsoft)等巨头。

However, many companies that are not so clearly connected could also suffer. Fears of an epidemic bring an increased reluctance to travel, which will negatively impact the profits of companies who rely on travelers for their income. Cruise ship operator Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL), for example, expects to see decreased revenue due to port closures in Asia. It may also face additional expenses if it is forced to quarantine one or more of its ships due to an infected passenger.

然而,许多没有明确联系的公司也可能受到影响。对流行病的恐惧导致人们越来越不愿意去旅行,这将对那些依靠旅行者赚取收入的公司的利润产生负面影响。游轮运营商嘉年华公司例如,纽约证券交易所(NYSE:CCL)预计,由于亚洲港口关闭,收入将减少。如果由于一名受感染的乘客被迫对一艘或多艘船只进行检疫,它也可能面临额外费用。

"While not currently planned, if the company had to suspend all of its operations in Asia through the end of April, this would impact its fiscal 2020 financial performance by $0.55 to $0.65 per share, which includes guest compensation," a Carnival representative said in a statement.

嘉年华的一位代表在一份声明中表示:“虽然目前没有计划,但如果该公司不得不在4月底之前暂停在亚洲的所有业务,这将影响其2020财年的财务业绩,每股0.55美元至0.65美元,其中包括客人薪酬。”

The U.S. and Chinese economies are highly interconnected, perhaps more so than many people realize, making it difficult to find large-cap U.S. stocks that do not rely on China for a significant amount of their production or profits. In addition, if the virus begins to spread in the U.S., and if the U.S. also reacts by shutting down significant portions of its economy, this point may become null.

中美两国的经济是高度相互关联的,也许比许多人意识到的还要多,这使得我们很难找到不依赖中国获得大量生产或利润的美国大盘股。此外,如果病毒开始在美国蔓延,如果美国也通过关闭其经济的很大一部分而作出反应,那么这一点可能成为无效。

Thus, it is best to look for stocks that will not be as negatively affected by shutdowns and decreases in face-to-face customer interaction. One such company is American Tower Corp. (NYSE:AMT), which is down only 0.9% following coronavirus outbreak. American Tower is a real estate investment trust that owns cell phone towers and other communication infrastructure real estate, and it derives its revenue from the continued use of its properties for communication services.

因此,最好是寻找不会受到关闭和减少的负面影响的股票面对面的客户互动。这样的公司之一是美国塔公司。(纽约证券交易所市场代码:AMT),在冠状病毒爆发后仅下降0.9%。美国塔是一个房地产投资信托基金,拥有手机塔和其他通信基础设施房地产,它的收入来自继续使用其财产用于通信服务。

Payment processing companies such as Mastercard also fit into this category. If anything, the online payments processing industry is likely to get a boost if people become more reluctant to leave their homes due to virus-related fears.

Mastercard等支付处理公司也属于这一类。如果有人因为与病毒有关的担忧而变得更不愿意离开自己的家,那么在线支付处理行业可能会得到提振。

Disclosure: Author owns no shares in any of the stocks mentioned. The mention of stocks in this article does not at any point constitute an investment recommendation. Investors should always conduct their own careful research or consult registered investment advisors before taking action in the stock market.

披露:作者不持有上述任何一种股票的股份。本条中提到的股票在任何时候都不构成投资建议。在股票市场采取行动之前,投资者应该进行自己的仔细研究或咨询注册投资顾问。

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This article first appeared onGuruFocus.

这篇文章第一次出现在GuruFocus上。

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with JNJ. Click here to check it out.

警告!GuruFocus与JNJ共检测到5个警告信号。点击这里查看。

JNJ 30-Year Financial Data

JNJ 30年财务数据

The intrinsic value of JNJ

JNJ的内在价值

Peter Lynch Chart of JNJ

JNJ的彼得·林奇图

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


以上内容仅用作资讯或教育之目的,不构成与富途相关的任何投资建议。富途竭力但不能保证上述全部内容的真实性、准确性和原创性。
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