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2025年AI软件股怎么选?大摩:这些公司有望脱颖而出

How to choose AI Software stocks in 2025? Morgan Stanley: These companies are expected to stand out.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 17 19:26

Morgan Stanley released a Research Report stating that after testing investors' patience in 2024, solutions based on generative AI are expected to make progress in 2025.

Morgan Stanley released a Research Report stating that after testing investors' patience in 2024, solutions based on generative AI seem likely to make progress in 2025. The bank believes that large integrators are in a favorable position to accumulate profits and avoid risks. The bank's view on the North American Software Industry is "attractive."

In addition, Morgan Stanley stated that its preferred software Stocks are$Fortinet (FTNT.US)$and$MongoDB (MDB.US)$. The bank also adjusted the ratings and Target Prices of some covered software Stocks, including:

Will$BILL Holdings (BILL.US)$The stock rating has been upgraded from "Hold" to "Shareholding," and the Target Price has been raised from 95 USD to 105 USD;

Will$DigitalOcean (DOCN.US)$The stock rating has been upgraded from "Hold" to "Shareholding," and the Target Price has been raised from 40 USD to 41 USD;

Will$OneStream (OS.US)$The stock rating has been upgraded from "Hold" to "Shareholding";

Upgraded. $Atlassian (TEAM.US)$ The Target Price is raised from 259 USD to 315 USD;

Will$Confluent (CFLT.US)$The stock rating is downgraded from "Shareholding" to "Hold," and the target price is lowered from 33 USD to 30 USD;

Will$Datadog (DDOG.US)$The stock rating has been downgraded from 'Shareholding' to 'Hold'.

Morgan Stanley stated that entering 2025, two emerging cycles could potentially compound, thereby strengthening the fundamentals of the Software Industry.

The first cycle is the software spending cycle, which is currently undergoing three years of optimization and digestion, laying a solid technical foundation for further growth. Recent surveys conducted by the bank on corporate Chief Information Officers show that their confidence is rebounding, and broader IT budgets will become healthier.

The second cycle revolves around the long-term innovation cycle of generative AI, and the potential for software to achieve automation in broader business and Consumer workflows has significantly expanded future market opportunities.

Morgan Stanley indicated that a better software spending background and a product cycle driven by generative AI provide investment opportunities across the entire Software Industry, with the firm seeking better risk/reward around the following three broader themes.

1. Integrators

As companies tighten budgets and seek to optimize technology usage, the momentum to consolidate more spending with fewer vendors is increasingly strong. Using fewer vendors allows for easier management and higher security, which complicates the economic necessity to drive vendor consolidation.

In the view of the bank, the driving force for vendor consolidation will become stronger in the early stages of generative AI, as the value of these solutions is directly related to the breadth of automated workflows and the depth of data that generative AI models can utilize. Integrators are best positioned to bring these high-value solutions to market alongside existing workflows, leveraging curated datasets and robust management environments to serve the existing large customer base.

Such Software companies include:$Salesforce (CRM.US)$$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$$Gitlab (GTLB.US)$$OneStream (OS.US)$

2. Advanced Users

With the significant product cycle advantages and operational improvements of generative AI solutions, the bank believes that the potential of this cycle will manifest in different ways, with advanced users driving revenue growth and profit margins. The most obvious benefits come from Software Development, as code generation tools have increased developer productivity by 20-40%, and the bank also sees strong potential in utilizing digital marketing and customer support.

Such software companies include:$Shopify (SHOP.US)$$Atlassian (TEAM.US)$$Workday (WDAY.US)$$Elastic (ESTC.US)$$BlackLine (BL.US)$

3. Focused on software companies for small businesses.

With the improvement in demand centered on the USA, coupled with the rising tariffs and the increasing concerns over the persistence of federal spending, software companies focused on small businesses have become a relatively safe haven within the Software Sector. Additionally, considering that one of the fundamental features of generative AI solutions is to accelerate proficiency, small businesses will be the biggest beneficiaries of these new capabilities.

Such software companies include: $Shopify (SHOP.US)$$HubSpot (HUBS.US)$$Toast (TOST.US)$$DigitalOcean (DOCN.US)$$BILL Holdings (BILL.US)$

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