Annual results exceeded expectations: According to the 2024 company performance forecast, net profit due to mother is expected to increase 90%-120% year over year to 0.586-0.679 billion yuan (vs. our original forecast net profit of 0.508 billion yuan for the whole year); among them, net profit to mother is expected to increase 72.2% year over year to 145.2%/increase 60.9%-129.2% month-on-month to 0.218-0.311 billion yuan. We judge that 4Q24's performance exceeded expectations, mainly benefited from Xiaopeng MONA M03 climbing volume and steady sales growth from downstream core customers such as Ideal/Cyrus.

Strong sales volume of the company's supporting models: The sales volume of the company's main customers in 2024 was impressive, with ideal annual sales volume +33.1% to 0.501 million units, Cyrus annual sales +316.5% to 0.386 million units, BYD's annual sales volume +48.2% to 3.551 million units, Geely's annual sales volume +34.4% to 1.834 million units; the new supporting model Xiaopeng MONA M03 has already surpassed 0.015 million units in December Million cars.

Expand categories and customers simultaneously and continue to obtain high-quality projects: The company is simultaneously promoting the expansion of product categories and new customers. In 2024, it has achieved category expansion in all of its major customers, Ideal, Cylis/Geely/BYD, and is also developing new customers such as Zero Run/Xiaopeng. We believe that the company's core strengths are: 1) Binding high-quality leading customers, supporting strong cycle models, and is expected to continue to expand: the company has successfully upgraded to Tier 1 with modular body products (as of 3Q24, there are four OEM customers among the company's top five customers). Currently, the company is deeply bound to the new leading car company Ideal/Cyrus, and has cooperated with Xiaopeng/Zero Sport/BYD/Geely/Changan. 2) The car body process layout is comprehensive. The new 2025E die-casting process will gradually be implemented: the company has achieved a one-stop solution for white car bodies or a sharp rise in volume and price, and is expected to open up long-term growth space through an integrated die-casting layout with complete structural component design and production experience; Changzhou Bojun has launched 5,000T and 9,000T die-casting equipment, and Chengdu Bojun has launched 2,500T, 3,500T and 5,000T die-casting equipment. The company has obtained orders for rear bottom panels, shock absorption towers, front end modules, and side panel rear panel products. The integrated die-casting products are expected to be 2Q25E Mass production. We judge that 1) the company's ability to develop new customers+obtain high-quality new projects is outstanding, and there is a good guarantee that the main scale of the stamping business continues to grow; 2) it is expected that after the release of 2025E integrated die-casting production capacity, the company's performance is expected to start a second growth curve.

Maintaining the “buy” rating: We are optimistic that the company will support high-quality core customers+layout multi-process collaborative development, and raise 2024E/2025E/2026E net profit by 18%/15%/7% to 0.6/0.75/0.91 billion yuan respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Sales volume of core customer models falls short of expectations, production capacity of newly built plants falls short of expectations, progress in integrated die casting falls short of expectations, and risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.