Goldman Sachs pointed out that Tesla's latest V13 version of the FSD system has significantly improved performance, able to operate without human intervention in 97% of driving situations, with a key intervention distance of 400-450 miles. However, this achievement still has a considerable gap from true "Self-Driving Cars."
Elon's ambition for Self-Driving Cars is significant, but reality is often more complex than he imagines.
On the 15th, Goldman Sachs' Mark Delaney research team released a report on $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ the latest Research Reports on FSD and its Robotaxi. Goldman Sachs expects Tesla's Robotaxi Business to commence commercial Operation in the second half of 2026, with estimated revenues of approximately 0.115 billion USD in 2027.
The latest version V13 of Tesla's FSD system has seen significant performance improvements. It can operate without human intervention in 97% of driving scenarios, with key intervention distances reaching 400-450 miles.
However, this achievement still falls short of true "Self-Driving Cars." Goldman Sachs points out that while FSD technology is continuously improving, its performance has not yet reached a level that surpasses human driving safety, and there is still a long way to go to achieve fully autonomous driving.
FSD technology continues to upgrade, with significant performance improvements in version V13.
Goldman Sachs indicates that Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology is progressing rapidly, with the latest version V13 showing a significant improvement in performance compared to V12.
According to Goldman Sachs team's testing experience, crowdsourced data, and third-party evaluations, the key intervention distance of FSD V13 has reached between 400-450 miles, with 97% of driving processes not requiring intervention.
Nevertheless, the Research Reports also mention that the FSD technology still has a long way to go before achieving complete "eyes off" (L3-level self-driving) or "consumer-level self-driving" (L4-level self-driving). For example, Waymo's Historical Data shows that its vehicles require a key intervention every 0.085 million miles in urban environments in California, while Tesla's current performance has significant room for improvement.
Moreover, according to the USA government's traffic safety data, regular vehicles may experience an accident every 0.6 to 0.7 million miles, while the performance of Tesla FSD has not yet reached the safety level that surpasses human driving.
The Research Reports believe that although Tesla plans to achieve a goal of being safer than human driving by the second quarter of 2025, this goal may be difficult to meet on time. However, as the FSD performance continues to improve, Goldman Sachs expects its market penetration and revenue to gradually increase, which will also positively impact the gross margin of Tesla's Autos Business.
Robotaxi Business: Launching in 2026, initial results by early 2027.
Goldman Sachs has for the first time separately broken down the income from Tesla's Robotaxi business in its model. The Research Reports predict that Tesla's Robotaxi business will start commercial operations in the second half of 2026 and achieve approximately $0.115 billion in revenue by 2027.
According to Tesla's plan, the service will initially operate in Texas and California, where regulations are relatively relaxed. In addition, Tesla plans to begin production of dedicated Cybercab models in 2026, but Goldman Sachs points out that Tesla's planning of timelines is often overly optimistic, and actual progress may be delayed.
To enhance the reliability of its Robotaxi service, Tesla plans to utilize remote assistance and geofencing technology during operation, technologies that are currently not used in the FSD Consumer version. Similar models have been adopted by competitors such as Baidu Apollo and $Pony AI (PONY.US)$others, proving that they help improve Self-Driving Cars performance within a limited geographical range.
The Research Reports estimate that by the end of 2027, the number of Tesla Robotaxi vehicles will increase from 300 in 2026 to 1,500, with each vehicle servicing 15 to 20 times per day, and an average income per mile of about $2.5.
Currently, companies such as Waymo, Pony.ai, and Mobileye have made significant technological and market progress. For example, Waymo has launched Robotaxi services in several cities in the USA, with its vehicles requiring only one critical intervention every 0.085 million miles and has completed over 5 million passenger trips in total. In contrast, Tesla's FSD still needs further optimization to handle complex urban environments and severe weather conditions.
Model Y upgrade: Market reaction meets expectations.
The Research Reports also mentioned Tesla's recent launch of the Model Y. In January 2025, Tesla introduced the upgraded Model Y in the Asia-Pacific market. The new version has improved range by 4%-7% and added new features such as rear screens, ambient lighting, and front bumper cameras. Additionally, the new model's acceleration performance has improved, and the interior design is quieter.
Although the upgraded Model Y is priced 4%-5% higher than the older version, Goldman Sachs expects that the price may decrease after mass production.
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