Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) expects its sales and capital expenditures for the first quarter of 2025 to exceed Analyst expectations, sparking hope that AI Hardware spending will remain resilient in 2025.
According to Zhituo Finance APP, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) expects its sales and capital expenditure for the first quarter of 2025 to exceed Analyst expectations, raising hopes that AI hardware spending will remain resilient in 2025.
Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor's net income for the fourth quarter of 2024 surged by 57%, exceeding market expectations, which boosted investors' hopes of seeing the trend of AI hardware spending continue into 2025. Taiwan Semiconductor's Q4 gross margin reached 59%, surpassing the market expectation of 58.5% and the previous quarter's 57.8%. Such a high gross margin nearing 60% is very rare for a chip manufacturer focused on heavy assets.
Taiwan Semiconductor expects its sales in the first quarter to be between 25 billion and 25.8 billion dollars, exceeding the average Analyst forecast of 24.4 billion dollars. The company anticipates investing between 38 billion and 42 billion dollars this year for technology and capacity upgrades, higher than the Analyst expectation of 35.2 billion dollars. Taiwan Semiconductor's management also forecasts a gross margin of 57% to 59% for the first quarter, exceeding the market estimate of 56.9%.
The world's largest chip manufacturer reported a net income of 374.7 billion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 11.6 billion dollars) for the fourth quarter, with an average profit expectation of 369.8 billion New Taiwan dollars; EPS was 2.24 dollars, higher than market expectations. Meanwhile, the company reported better-than-expected sales last week, with revenue reaching 26.88 billion dollars, a year-on-year increase of 37.0%.
Strong performance continued a winning streak that has lasted for years; since the summer of 2019, Taiwan Semiconductor has exceeded expectations in all but one quarter. This momentum was initially driven by Apple's iPhone and iPad, while the AI spending cycle has propelled NVIDIA's valuation above 3 trillion dollars. As a major chip manufacturer for Apple and NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor is closely watched in the Electronics Industry.
Taiwan Semiconductor is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the global AI development race. The company's stock price soared by over 80% in 2024, marking the largest percentage gain since 1999.
ChatGPT has stimulated a frenzy of construction in AI infrastructure over the past two years, but so far there has been a lack of a large AI application capable of generating profit, raising concerns about a potential bubble.
The company is also struggling to cope with the uncertainties brought by the US-China technology conflict. The USA announced new rules this month for AI Chip export controls to limit their export. Apple remains the largest customer of Taiwan Semiconductor, and iPhone sales are expected to decline.
Taiwan Semiconductor's sales hit a new high due to demand for AI Chips.
Morgan Stanley stated last week that the company's sales growth rate is expected to reach around 20% in 2025 (measured in USD).
Bloomberg Industry Research Analyst Charles Shum commented on the revenue outlook for 2025, saying, 'In terms of drivers, in addition to the continued strong demand for AI Chips, there is support from new smart phone chips and AI PCs, Intel may also have more outsourcing Orders, and WiFi 7 Chips.'
Analyst Steven Tseng indicated that the Biden administration's restrictions on advanced chip production include exemptions for countries with fewer than 30 billion transistors, and Taiwan Semiconductor may be able to retain more than half of its existing Orders from China. This will allow Taiwan Semiconductor to maintain sales of smart phone SoC and mid-range computing chips to China. Chip Orders from China accounted for 12.6% of Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue from January to September.
Geopolitical tensions are driving Taiwan Semiconductor's Global expansion. Investors will pay attention to the expansion of factories in Arizona and Japan, as well as whether additional expansion plans will proceed smoothly or be delayed.
According to informed sources, Taiwan Semiconductor plans to establish more factories in Europe, focusing on the AI Chip market. In addition, the company is also building a factory in Dresden, Germany.
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