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升势重燃!比特币一度重返10万美元大关,今年有望延续牛市行情?

The upward trend is reignited! Bitcoin once again returned to the $0.1 million mark, is there hope for the continuation of the bull market this year?

Futu News ·  Jan 16 13:23

Last night, the USA Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data, reigniting the market's bets on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The unexpected slowdown in the core CPI boosted the US stock market and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin recording the largest single-day gain this year.

Bitcoin briefly returned to the $0.1 million mark during trading, driving a collective rebound in the crypto concept stocks. By the close, $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ rose approximately 10%, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$Increased by more than 7%, while 'large Holders' $microstrategy (MSTR.US)$ rose over 5%.

According to Bloomberg data, the correlation between Bitcoin and USA Technology Stocks Indicators has reached a two-year high, indicating that the release of US inflation data on Wednesday boosted the US stock market while also causing Bitcoin to rise in tandem.

Data shows that currently the 30-day correlation coefficient of Bitcoin is about 0.7,$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$indicating a high degree of correlation in their movements. (A correlation coefficient of 1 means the assets move in the same direction, while -1 indicates the assets move in opposite directions.)

As Trump takes office, policy expectations may be bullish.

Trump is set to be sworn in on January 20, and he may introduce a series of policy measures regarding Cryptos. The market is closely watching Trump's inflation tariffs, immigration policies, and his promise to make the USA the "global cryptocurrency capital."

According to Reuters, the SEC under the Trump administration is reviewing several pending crypto enforcement cases in court, and is expected to comprehensively reform crypto policy, possibly freezing some lawsuits that do not involve fraud allegations.

Informed sources say that Republican officials at the SEC are ready to begin reforming the agency's cryptocurrency policy as early as next week after Trump takes office. Measures under consideration by Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda include initiating relevant procedures to ultimately formulate guidance or rules that clarify under what circumstances the agency will consider Cryptos as securities and reviewing some crypto enforcement cases currently in court.

Analysts at K33 Research point out that in the lead-up to Trump's inauguration, his policy direction may continue to significantly impact the market. Some believe that potentially favorable policies for digital assets from the Trump administration will continue to support Bitcoin prices. However, there are also views that Bitcoin has already surged significantly after Trump's victory, and after he officially takes power, the market may experience a round of profit-taking.

Pantera Capital portfolio manager Cosmo Jiang stated that Trump is expected to issue a large number of executive orders immediately after taking office next week, some of which will be particularly favorable to digital assets. In the short term, we may see some investors selling on negative news, but those doing so are "missing the forest for the trees."

In addition, ETF Store President Nate Geraci stated that 2025 may become the "Year of Cryptocurrency ETFs." He predicts that under the leadership of the new chairperson, over 50 cryptocurrency ETFs will be approved by the SEC, including spot Solana and XRP funds, as well as options-based and stock-based products.

Bitcoin's four-year cycle.

Historically, the valuation of Cryptos follows a distinct four-year cycle, with prices experiencing consecutive periods of appreciation and depreciation. Since 2012, Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well in the years following each USA presidential election.

2017 was a year of skyrocketing Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin surged from around $1,000 at the beginning of the year to nearly $0.02 million by the end of the year, achieving an annual increase of several times.

In 2021, Bitcoin saw a significant increase, although its price was highly volatile. Starting at less than 0.03 million USD at the beginning of the year, it quickly reached a peak of over 0.064 million USD within a few months, but in May it sharply fell back to around 0.03 million USD. However, as the market gradually recovered, Bitcoin rebounded again in the second half of 2021, breaking through the 0.07 million USD mark in November, and the highest price recorded that month was only surpassed in March 2024.

These election years often coincide with Bitcoin’s halving events in the previous year, and halving is seen as a positive signal for the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin halving is a mechanism in its blockchain algorithm designed to control token supply, with a maximum supply of 21 million. Every time 210,000 new blocks are mined, the mining reward is halved, occurring approximately every four years.

According to Martin Leinweber, Director of Digital Assets Research and Strategy at MarketVector Indexes, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin is expected to reach a cyclical high of around $0.15 million this year. Investors hold an optimistic view regarding the cryptocurrency regulatory environment potentially brought about by the Trump administration, which is seen as a factor that could further drive up digital asset prices.

Despite Bitcoin's relatively short history and limited data samples, Leinweber believes that studying Bitcoin's performance in past cycles helps investors better understand market trends and behavior. He notes that even during bull markets, Bitcoin can experience declines of 20% to 30% or even larger. Bitcoin also briefly fell over 10% after the presidential inaugurations in 2017 and 2021, but rebounded shortly thereafter.

According to MarketVector's simulated predictions, if historical patterns persist, Bitcoin could reach approximately 2.3 times the early November levels, which were around $0.067 million, suggesting a cyclical high price prediction of about $0.15 million.

Muneeb Ali, co-founder and CEO of the Stacks project, stated that he would be surprised if Bitcoin does not reach $0.15 million by the end of the year, and he anticipates that the price may climb to $0.2 million. Ali believes the four-year cycle theory remains valid, with the current cycle expected to end in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In addition, it was pointed out that Trump's election as president would have a significant bullish impact on the crypto industry, especially considering the in-depth understanding of the cryptocurrency field by David O. Sacks, appointed as the White House's head of AI and cryptocurrency affairs.

Various indicators measuring the state of the bull market.

In addition to referencing past cycles' price performance, investors can utilize various blockchain-based indicators to assess the maturity of the Bitcoin bull market. For example, common indicators measure the appreciation of Bitcoin relative to the cost basis for buyers, the inflow of new capital into Bitcoin, and the price relative to Bitcoin miners' income.

A particularly popular indicator calculates the ratio of Bitcoin's Market Cap (MV) (measured at its secondary market price per token) to its Realized Value (RV) (measured at the price of the last on-chain transaction for each token). This indicator, called the MVRV ratio, can be seen as the extent to which Bitcoin's Market Cap exceeds the total market cost basis.

In the past four cycles, the MVRV ratio has reached at least a level of 4. Currently, the MVRV ratio is 2.6, indicating that the current cycle may still have the potential to continue. However, the peak MVRV ratio for each cycle varies, so this indicator may not reach a level of 4 before the price peaks.

Other on-chain indicators measure the degree of new capital entering the Bitcoin ecosystem, a framework often referred to as HODL Waves. Price appreciation may stem from new capital purchasing Bitcoin from long-term holders at slightly higher prices. There are various specific measures available, and Grayscale Research tends to use the ratio of the number of tokens transferred on-chain last year to the total freely circulating supply of Bitcoin to measure this.

In the past four cycles, this ratio has reached at least 60%, indicating that during the appreciation phase, at least 60% of the freely circulating supply was traded on-chain within a year. Currently, this ratio is about 54%, suggesting that before prices peak, we may see more tokens transferred on-chain.

Additionally, there are some cyclical indicators focused on Bitcoin miners, who are the professional services providers responsible for securing the Bitcoin network. For instance, a common metric is calculating the ratio of miners' Cap (MC) (the dollar value of all Bitcoins held by miners) to what is known as the 'hot cap' (TC) (the cumulative value of Bitcoins issued to miners through block rewards and transaction fees). The intuition is that when the value of miners' assets reaches a certain threshold, they may begin to take profits.

Historically, when the MCTC ratio exceeds 10, prices often peak within that cycle. Currently, the MCTC ratio is around 6, indicating that we are still in the mid-stage of the current cycle. However, similar to the MVRV ratio, the MCTC ratio also peaks at lower levels in each cycle, so prices may have already reached their peak before the MCTC ratio hits 10.

It is important to note that while there are various on-chain indicators and Other data source indicators to measure the state of the Bitcoin cycle, these tools can only provide rough references and do not guarantee that the relationship between these indicators and future price returns will be similar to the past.

However, looking at the bigger picture, Grayscale Research believes that the current combination of indicators is consistent with the mid-stage of the crypto market cycle: indicators like the MVRV ratio are far above their cyclical lows but have not yet reached levels that signify previous market tops. As long as there is fundamental support, there is no reason to believe that the crypto bull market cannot last until 2025 and beyond.

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编辑/jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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