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特朗普政策仍迷雾重重 美国生物制药行业2025年能否扭转颓势?

Trump's policies remain shrouded in ambiguity. Can the USA biopharmaceutical industry turn the tide by 2025?

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 15 12:40

After facing a decline in investor returns last year, the biopharmaceutical industry hopes to reverse the downturn by 2025, but remains cautious about the policy focus of the incoming president, Donald Trump.

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, following last year's decline in investor returns, the Biotechnology industry expects to turn the situation around by 2025, but remains cautious about the policy focus of incoming President Donald Trump on drug pricing reform and hot issues like vaccines.

With the implementation of the Biden administration's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the Pharmaceutical industry has welcomed the biggest regulatory change in decades, as the Act allows the federal government's Medicare program to negotiate prices for the most expensive prescription drugs for the first time.

"Nothing can kill investment more than uncertainty. The Inflation Reduction Act has brought many uncertainties to this industry," said Steve Ubl, head of the industry lobbying group PhRMA, at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference held this week in San Francisco.

He stated that PhRMA hopes the new government will focus less on attacking the industry's "ecosystem" and instead work to reduce inefficiencies, thereby lowering costs for patients.

In August of last year, the prices of the first ten drugs negotiated by Medicare were announced, showing that these prices were basically in line with existing prices after considering discounts and rebates.

The list of the next batch of 15 drugs to be negotiated for pricing is expected to be finalized by February 1, with potential announcements this week; however, the final list may still change after Trump takes office on January 20.

Last year, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell by 3%, while the benchmark S&P 500 Index rose by 23%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, concentrated with technology stocks, surged nearly 29%. The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index increased by 1%.

Although obesity drug manufacturers Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US) and Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US) both saw their stock prices reach new highs last year, there were still discrepancies. Eli Lilly's stock price rose by 31% by the end of 2024, while Novo-Nordisk's price dropped by 9% due to disappointing trial results for a next-generation weight loss drug.

Roel Van den Akker, head of Pharmaceutical Trade at PwC, stated, "The growth in the entire industry is not balanced, with both winners and losers." Investors are assessing how pharmaceutical companies will respond to the upcoming patent expirations.

Patent expiration

Morgan Stanley estimates that by the end of this decade, patents corresponding to approximately $175 billion in revenues (35% of total revenues) for large U.S. biopharmaceutical companies will expire in 2025.

To make up for this revenue, pharmaceutical companies need to launch new products, which must come either from their own research and development or through acquisitions of promising assets; however, such transactions significantly slowed down last year.

According to data from IQVIA Holdings' Human Data Science Institute, as of November, this year's total mergers and acquisitions in the life sciences sector reached about $80 billion, less than half of the total for 2023. Last year, no transactions exceeding $5 billion were completed.

The market expects that the next chair of the Federal Trade Commission will advocate for transactions more favorably than Lina Khan, which is a positive factor for pharmaceutical companies.

On Monday, a series of Trades were announced, including Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ.US) acquisition deal of 14.6 billion USD.

Trump nominated current commissioner Andrew Ferguson to replace Khan. However, investors are not enthusiastic about some other key appointments in the upcoming government nominated by Trump.

"Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s views on vaccines will certainly affect some large Pharmaceutical companies," said Beth Nitzel, a partner at the law firm Foley & Lardner, referring to Trump’s nominee for leading the Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been publicly skeptical of vaccines.

"I think the aim will also be to seek consensus. Keeping Americans healthy is a common goal for us," said Chris Viehbacher, CEO of Biogen (BIIB.US), during an interview at the conference.

Executives in the Pharmaceutical Industry attempt to exert influence.

Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer (PFE.US), emphasized the uncertainties in the Industry during his communication sessions with investors at the conference, but stated on Monday that he would strive to influence the industry environment.

He said, "Some people think that the risks outweigh the opportunities for our Industry. There are others, including myself, who believe that the opportunities outweigh the risks. I guess we will wait and see."

Johnson & Johnson CEO Joaquin Duato told investors, "I find it difficult to predict what will happen." He also added that he would push for policies regarding innovation and drug accessibility to the Trump administration.

Investors are concerned about the impact of government policies on Pharmaceutical prices, including any changes to the Inflation Reduction Act, which could affect the speed at which individual drugs enter Medicare price negotiations.

Priya Chandran, head of the Biotechnology industry at Boston Consulting Group, stated that these changes are difficult to achieve as they are written into law. She said, "There is unlikely to be any significant changes in the first year."

Neitzel from the law firm Goodwin Procter indicated that reports suggest Trump held a "warm and friendly" dinner with Pharmaceutical executives in Florida last December, which brought some optimism.

However, she said, "Trump's and Robert F. Kennedy's past general remarks on drug pricing suggest that the incoming Trump administration is unlikely to be helpful to this industry."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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