According to the Zhito Finance APP, Guotou Securities released a research report stating that under the new policy tone of strengthening and expanding implementation, the effects of subsidies for replacing old electric bicycles with new ones are expected to strengthen by 2025, leading to an increase in industry demand. The switch to 3C certification and the new national standards for electric bicycles involve 11 modifications to enhance the safety of electric bicycles, while the addition of Beidou positioning, communication, and dynamic safety monitoring functions allows consumers to monitor key safety information of electric bicycles in real time (such as theft, abnormal battery temperature, or high voltage), which is beneficial for accelerating the concentration of the industry.

Event: On January 13, 2025, the revised mandatory national standards for electric bicycles will be officially released. The "Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycle Safety" (GB17761-2024) will be published on December 31, 2024, and will come into effect on September 1, 2025, replacing the old standards (GB17761—2018).

Guotou Securities' main points are as follows:

The new standards made 11 major changes compared to the old standards.

According to information from the official WeChat account of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the new standards have 11 changes compared to the old standards:

1) Strengthened fire retardant requirements for non-metallic materials.

2) It is clarified that the total mass of plastics used in electric bicycles should not exceed 5.5% of the total vehicle mass.

3) Requirements for low-speed running torque, no-load back electromotive force, and inductance value difference coefficient of the motor are increased.

4) The requirements for anti-tampering of the battery pack, controller, and speed limiter are improved.

5) The braking performance requirements are enhanced, and the maximum braking distance of the vehicle is reduced.

6) The upper limit of the total mass of electric bicycles using lead-acid rechargeable batteries is raised from 55kg to 63kg.

7) New requirements for enterprise quality assurance capabilities and product consistency are added, clarifying that manufacturers should possess production capacity, testing capability, and quality control capability for major components such as the whole vehicle and frame that match the production capacity of the electric bicycles.

8) It is required that electric bicycles have Beidou positioning, communication, and dynamic safety monitoring functions (ToC products can allow consumers to choose whether to retain the Beidou positioning module at the time of sale).

9) It is no longer mandatory for all models to be equipped with a pedal riding device.

10) Clarify that electric bicycles are encouraged to install rearview mirrors;

11) Require manufacturers to specify the recommended service life of electric bicycles, and mark it on the nameplate and product quality certificate.

The new standard is beneficial for improving the safety of electric bicycles.

1) The new standard strengthens the fire resistance and flame retardant requirements for non-metallic materials, limits the use of Plastics, and adds permanent high-temperature resistance marking, which can help reduce the potential hazards of fire accidents;

2) The space for illegal modifications is reduced. The new standard adds requirements for indicators such as the no-load back electromotive force of the motor and the differential coefficient of inductance, ensuring that the speed of the vehicle cannot exceed 25 km/h when the input voltage reaches its maximum; the new standard also significantly raises the threshold for illegal modifications through improving anti-tampering technical indicators and testing methods, increasing mutual recognition and collaboration functions, and implementing "one vehicle, one battery, one charge code," It also relaxes the weight limit for lead Rechargeable Battery models to 63 kg, which is beneficial for reducing consumer demand for modifications due to insufficient battery life.

3) Vehicle performance enhancement.

The new standard adds BeiDou positioning, communication, and dynamic safety monitoring functions, allowing consumers to understand key safety information of electric bicycles (such as theft of the vehicle, abnormal battery temperature, or excessive voltage) in real time.

The new standard sets an 8-month production transition period and a 3-month sales transition period: according to information released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, before and on August 31, 2025, enterprises can produce either according to the old or the new standard; after September 1, 2025, all newly produced electric bicycles must comply with the requirements of the new standard. The new standard additionally provides a 3-month sales transition period for vehicles produced according to the old standard before August 31, 2025, allowing sales until November 30, 2025; after December 1, 2025, all electric bicycle products sold must comply with the new standard regulations.

The new standards are expected to accelerate the concentration of the Industry.

1) The new standards include clauses on corporate quality assurance capabilities and product consistency, clearly requiring manufacturing companies to have production capabilities for complete vehicles and frames that match the production capacity of electric bicycles, as well as testing and quality control capabilities. We anticipate that small enterprises with lower annual sales may face elimination pressure due to the high capital costs of investing in their own production capacity.

2) With restrictions on vehicle weight, control over illegal modifications, and limits on the use of Plastics, leading companies can highlight their product competitive advantages through the research and development of new Batteries and new materials to expand market share.

Investment recommendation:

Bullish on leading electric bicycle companies YADEA (01585), Aima Technology (603529.SH), and Ninebot Limited (689009.SH), which maintains high growth driven by diversified business and high levels of product intelligence.

Risk warning: The subsidy for replacing old with new is less than expected, and industry competition is intensifying.