share_log

四大利好齐袭!港股、A股集体拉升,恒生科技指数涨超2%,外资态度出现转向

Four bullish factors come together! Hong Kong stocks and A-shares surge collectively, with the Hang Seng TECH Index rising over 2%, and foreign capital attitude is showing a shift.

Brokerage China ·  Jan 14 03:40

Against the backdrop of a significant decline in the Japanese stock market, the A-shares market has shown impressive performance in the Asia-Pacific region. In the early trading today, the number of stocks that rose exceeded 5,000, and all three major Indices went up. The A50 even surged sharply, and the Hong Kong stock market was also boosted.

Analysts believe that there are four main reasons for the market's strengthening:

Firstly, the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated last night that it will strengthen the monitoring and regulation of domestic and foreign, onshore and offshore, as well as the linkage between spot and Futures, enhancing the forward-looking, proactive, and effective nature of the work. Together with the People's Bank of China, it will better utilize two structural monetary policy tools to reinforce strategic strength reserves and the stability mechanism. There will be enhanced policy interpretation and guidance, a timely response to market concerns, and further stabilization of market expectations;

Secondly, the RMB exchange rate has been continuously weakening recently, but regulatory measures have also been implemented, such as raising the macro-prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing and issuing offshore central bank bills yesterday;

Thirdly, there has been an increase in regulation of the government bond market, with today's 30-year Treasury bond Future showing a significant decline, and the yields on major interbank interest-bearing bonds generally rising at the beginning of the session;

Fourthly, foreign capital has suddenly turned bullish on the Chinese stock market.

A-shares and Hong Kong stocks surged.

The A-share market has suddenly surged. As of the time of publication, the Chinext Price Index has risen by over 3.2%, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 1.92%, the Shenzhen Component Index has climbed by 2.83%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index has gained nearly 6.5%. Concepts such as Xiaohongshu, Siasun Robot&Automation, Huawei Industry Chain, and Software Development are leading the gains, with nearly 5,300 stocks rising in the two markets. Although the USD is still on the rise, the performance of the RMB today is also quite strong.

At the same time, the Hang Seng TECH Index rose over 2%, and the Hang Seng Index's increase expanded to 1.4%. A50 also rose sharply by over 1.6%.

Hong Kong's star Network Technology stocks and Semiconductors stocks have surged, among the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng TECH Index, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ is up over 4%, $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ Increased by over 3%. $SMIC (00981.HK)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Increased by about 2%.

However, the performance of the external markets has not been good. As of the early trading session close, the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 1.8%, the TOPIX Index fell by 1.3%, and the U.S. stock market also showed relatively weak performance. So, what exactly happened?

In addition to the Bullish Signals released from the regulatory perspective last night, the bond market's performance this morning seems to be a signal. This morning, the yields on major interbank interest rate bonds generally rose, with the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond '24 policy bank 15' rising 0.75bp to 1.6850%, the yield on the 10-year government bond '24 coupon government bond 11' rising 0.5bp to 1.65%, and the yield on the 30-year government bond '24 special government bond 06' rising 0.5bp to 1.9050%. Recently, the trend of government bonds has shown a clear weakening. At the same time, the Renminbi has strengthened against other non-USD currencies.

The attitude of foreign investment.

The attitude of foreign investors is also changing. The 25th UBS Group Greater China Conference (GCC) opened yesterday in Shanghai. At the thematic session on 'Outlook and Investment Opportunities for Chinese Stocks,' UBS Group Greater China Research Director Lian Peikun predicted that China will perform better compared to Emerging Markets and the Global situation, expressing a Bullish view on China's overall stock market and a preference for MSCI Chinese Index and Hong Kong stocks. He pointed out that the Fed's interest rate cut pace is currently unclear, and it may be slower than previously anticipated, indicating that this year will be a 'strong dollar.'

Meng Lei, a strategist at UBS Securities for China, expressed his optimistic stance on the Chinese market. In terms of investment themes, he focuses first on Large Cap, then on Small Cap, especially in areas such as state-owned enterprises, market value management, and mergers and acquisitions. There can be some reassessment of growth and value in the short term, but after the market rebounds, there may be an increased allocation toward growth.

Lian Peikun stated that by 2025, observing global stock asset allocation, especially in Emerging Markets, will still experience significant fluctuations. UBS expects that from a macro perspective, global economic growth will slow in 2025. First, regarding U.S. interest rates, because the Fed's interest rate cut pace is currently unclear, UBS believes it may be slower than previously expected, indicating a 'strong dollar,' which may also be a relatively conservative direction towards Emerging Markets.

Lian Peikun pointed out that it is expected that by 2025, China's fiscal policy will be more proactive, which will enhance the overall economy. In fact, China's situation is better compared to the global scenario, so UBS is relatively positive about the overall stock market in China. As for when the Real Estate market will bottom out, he believes there will be support from policies in China, which will also translate into the profits of companies.

It is worth mentioning that recently, not only UBS Group is Bullish. Goldman Sachs' Chief China Stock Strategist Liu Jinjun and his team released a recent report predicting that the MSCI Chinese Index and CSI 300 Index will rise by about 20% by the end of 2025, maintaining an overweight investment recommendation on A-shares and offshore Chinese Stocks.

Goldman Sachs' economic team stated that from a macroeconomic perspective, the Chinese government has already launched strong policy support measures, which not only help alleviate Real Estate and external challenges but also facilitate a long-awaited shift in the growth model—from trade and investment-driven to domestic demand and Consumer-driven.

Editor/new

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment

    Statement

    This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.