Citi released a report indicating that the USA plans to implement a three-tier regulation on AI chip exports. The firm believes that the new restrictions may impact NVIDIA's (NVDA.US) sales to non-American ally destinations and could have a short-term negative effect on ASMPT (00522.HK). The increasing difficulty in obtaining American AI chips may also accelerate the adoption of domestically produced GPUs by Chinese cloud service providers, which would benefit China's foundries and OSATs, such as JCET Group Co., Ltd. (600584.SS).
The firm rated ASMPT as "Buy" with a Target Price of 105 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to a projected PE of 25 times this year, which is 1.5 standard deviations higher than the average over the past five years. Citi believes there are justifiable grounds supporting this upward cycle valuation multiple due to anticipated recovery in revenue and net profit, benefiting from strong TCB Orders this year; mainstream SEMI and SMT Business trends are stabilizing. Furthermore, the expansion in income contribution from AI-driven advanced Encapsulation is expected to help drive valuation reassessment.
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