According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Friday, influenced by the decline in US crude oil inventories, the international crude oil price benchmark — Brent crude oil futures price rose more than 4%, surpassing $80 per barrel, reaching the highest level since October.

Goldman Sachs stated that extreme cold weather in the USA has caused inventory levels in Cushing, Oklahoma, to drop to the lowest level since 2014. Additionally, the rise in oil prices is also related to concerns among commodity traders about US policy under elected president Donald Trump, including potential sanctions against Iran and global trade conflicts that may disrupt energy flows, leading to expectations of tightening global oil supply.

As of the time of publication, the petroleum sector has generally risen. $Chevron (CVX.US)$、$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$Increase of over 2%.

In a recent Research Reports released by Goldman Sachs, it was indicated that last week, Brent crude oil prices increased, primarily due to the strong demand for heating oil supported by the cold weather in the Northeast USA and Europe. At the same time, the latest forecast from the OECD Oil Commercial Inventory shows that inventories have fallen to levels 30 million barrels lower than the same period last year. Furthermore, oil prices first broke through the 100-day moving average, triggering algorithmic trading that further pushed up oil prices.

Goldman Sachs expects that the recent significant drop in temperatures in the USA and Northwest Europe will increase oil demand by 0.1 million barrels per day, which will particularly further support the price trend of diesel. Since the low point in early December, diesel prices have already rebounded by more than 10%.

Goldman Sachs stated in a Research Report that last week, due to continuous pressure on China's independent refineries, China's oil demand fell further below Goldman Sachs's expectations, while the forecast for Libyan crude oil production slightly increased, resulting in a 0.2 million barrels per day increase in Goldman Sachs's tracked net supply. The forecast for crude oil production in the 48 contiguous states of the USA and total liquid production in Canada compiled by Goldman Sachs is also 0.2 million barrels per day higher than Goldman Sachs's expectations in December.

In the two weeks before Trump's inauguration, oil exports from sanctioned oil-producing countries remained stable, with Venezuelan crude oil exports reaching a five-year high last year. Goldman Sachs's forecast for Iranian refined crude oil production has remained basically flat over the past two months, but the institution now sees early signs that Iranian crude oil exports may decline.

Goldman Sachs stated that in terms of prices, a positive aspect is that OECD petroleum commercial inventories have decreased by 9 million barrels, and crude oil inventories in Emerging Markets also significantly decreased last week. Due to production declines from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq, the execution rate of OPEC+'s production cuts in December increased significantly. Moreover, Goldman Sachs noted that last week, net managed fund positions in oil increased by 59 million barrels, and the rebound in diesel positions offset the normalization of gasoline positions, but they still remain at a lower 18th percentile level.

In terms of prices, the unfavorable aspect is that Goldman Sachs's current forecast for crude oil production in the 48 continental states of the USA is 0.2 million barrels per day higher than Goldman Sachs's December expectations, due to the fact that last week the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a monthly report showing that US crude oil production in October generally exceeded expectations, and the implied production scale from pipelines further increased over the past two months.

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's fourth quarter Energy Survey shows that despite the decline in Crude Oil Product prices, producers remain optimistic about their capital expenditure expectations. Goldman Sachs expects that the upcoming energy conference will provide further insights into the production expectations of large producers.

In the initial reading for December, the total liquid production forecast for Canada compiled by Goldman Sachs also exceeded the Institutions' December expectations, reaching 0.2 million barrels per day. Additionally, Argentina's oil production in November increased by 12% year-on-year, marking a new high in 22 years.

Editor/ping