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U.S. Stock Outlook | Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a short-term plunge in the three major futures indices; high-performing stocks surged, with pharmacy stock WBA rising over 13% in pre-market, and Delta Air Lines climbing over 9%

Futu News · 08:17

热点要闻

周五盘前，三大期指短线跳水，非农数据高于预期

美国12月非农就业人数增加25.6万人，预期增加16万人，前值增加21.2万人。美国12月失业率为4.1%，预期为4.2%，前值为4.2%。

量子计算概念股盘前普涨， $盟云全息 (HOLO.US)$涨近30%， $Arqit Quantum (ARQQ.US)$涨超8%，$SEALSQ Corp (LAES.US)$涨近7%，$IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$涨逾5%

因达美航空业绩好于市场预期，航空板块盘前普涨， $联合大陆航空 (UAL.US)$盘前升逾7%， $美国航空 (AAL.US)$升近6%

英伟达盘前微跌、AMD盘前跌超2%，美国拟收紧英伟达和AMD等AI芯片出口

美股市场$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$盘前微跌，$美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$跌近2%。消息面上，彭博引述知情人士称，即将卸任的美国总统拜登为防止先进技术落入中国和俄罗斯之手，准备最后奋力一搏，要对英伟达和超微(AMD)等公司的人工智能(AI)芯片出口祭出新一轮大规模的全球性限制措施。

台积电盘前涨近2%，2024年Q4销售额胜预期

$台积电 (TSM.US)$盘前涨2.29%。台积电公布最新营收报告显示，2024年12月合并营收约为新台币2781.63亿元，较上月增加0.8%，较去年同期增加57.8%。累计2024年1至12月营收约为新台币28943.8亿元，较去年同期增加33.9%。台积电2024年第四季度销售额超过预期，增强了投资者对AI硬件支出浪潮将在2025年延续下去的预期。

核电公司Constellation Energy盘前涨超13%，公司同意以266亿的交易收购Calpine

$Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$盘前涨超13%，公司已同意收购Calpine，这一交易将两家美国最大的电力生产商结合在一起。Constellation周五表示，这项价值约266亿美元的现金和股票交易包括对Calpine的债务承担。

达美航空盘前涨超9%，Q4经调整每股收益及营收超预期

$达美航空 (DAL.US)$盘前涨超9%。消息面上，达美航空第四季度经调整后营收144.4亿美元，高于预估的141.6亿美元；经调整后每股收益1.85美元，高于预估的1.76美元。

沃尔格林-联合博姿盘前升近14%，公司2025财年Q1业绩好于预期，上调全财年每股收益指引

$沃尔格林-联合博姿 (WBA.US)$报告2025财年第一季度销售增长7.5%，达到395亿美金，高于预期的 373.5 亿美元，同时每股收益损失为0.31美金，而去年同期损失为0.08美金。调整后的每股收益从0.66美金下降至0.51美金，主要原因是$美国零售销售 (USRS.EC)$下降和减少的售租回购收益。公司维持2025财年调整后的每股收益指导区间为1.40-1.80美金。

特斯拉通过软件更新解决23.9万辆汽车召回问题，推出新款Model Y SUV

作为美国国家公路交通安全管理局召回239382辆汽车的一部分，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$进行了一次无线软件更新。更新是为了解决电脑电路板“可能短路，导致后视摄像头图像丢失”的问题。此次召回涵盖了2024-2025年的Model 3、Model S、2023-2025年的Model X和2023-2025年的Model Y车型。

此外，特斯拉官网显示，该公司于周五在中国正式推出新款Model Y SUV，并开始接受订单，新款Model Y(代号Juniper)的标准版起售价为26.35万元(合35900美元)。

诺和诺德盘前涨超2%，与Valo Health扩大合作，利用AI开发减肥药

丹麦制药巨头$诺和诺德 (NVO.US)$盘前涨超2%。消息上，公司和美国科技公司Valo Health日前表示，同意扩大2023年开发多达11种药物的合作协议范围，将利用人类数据和人工智能(AI)，以开发多达20种针对肥胖、二型糖尿病和心血管疾病的新疗法。

紧张关系加剧！星巴克工会提交34起联邦投诉

$星巴克 (SBUX.US)$工会本周向美国劳工委员会提交了34起针对该公司的投诉，这表明星巴克与工会之间的紧张关系正在加剧。这些投诉是由星巴克工人联合会向美国劳工委员会提交的，指控星巴克在16个州的门店违反了联邦劳动法，在过去几个月里因工会活动而挑选和解雇员工。

恩智浦盘前涨3%，与$霍尼韦尔 (HON.US)$扩大合作，高盛上调评级至“买进”

$恩智浦 (NXPI.US)$盘前涨近2%。消息上，霍尼韦尔和恩智浦半导体表示，双方将扩大合作，共同开发航空和自主飞行领域的人工智能驱动技术。根据合作协议，两家公司将结合霍尼韦尔的Anthem航空电子设备(一种云连接驾驶舱系统)和恩智浦的计算架构，以改进飞行规划和管理。此外，高盛将恩智浦半导体评级由中性上调至买进，目标价257美元，即上涨23%。

生物科技公司$Akoya Biosciences (AKYA.US)$盘前涨逾20%，该公司已同意以全股交易的方式被$Quanterix (QTRX.US)$收购

美最大空中消防公司$Bridger Aerospace (BAER.US)$盘前升逾44%

声网盘前涨超6%，与$微软 (MSFT.US)$中国达成合作

$声网 (API.US)$盘前涨超6%。消息面上，声网与微软中国近日达成合作。微软关注大模型质量，当大模型应用到企业或最终客户时，会出现很多工程学问题，尤其当接入多模态时，对带宽和音视频的要求会变得越来越强，声网关注的音视频领域行业，可以加速优化、降低成本，实现传输最后一公里的闭环。

全球宏观

今晚，非农将为美联储暂停降息“作证”？

美国劳工统计局将于周五公布月度非农就业报告，美国12月非农就业报告预计将显示新增就业人数健康增长，失业率保持不变，表明劳动力市场再次打破了预期的更大幅度放缓。根据经济学家预期，上个月非农就业人数可能增加了16.5万人。这一数据将较11月的22.7万人有所回落。这些数据将支持美联储将关注点重新转向通胀的意图。

多位美联储票委发声，暗示暂停降息

几位美联储官员周四证实，美联储可能会在较长一段时间内将利率维持在当前水平，只有在通胀明显降温时才会再次降息。波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示，由于官员们面临美国经济前景的“相当大的不确定性”，现在应该放慢调整利率的速度。柯林斯表示，美联储的“政策已做好准备，可以根据不断变化的形势进行必要的调整——如果通胀没有进一步进展，将在当前水平维持更长时间。”

高盛策略师警告：美股定价处于“完美水平” 很容易出现回调

高盛首席全球股票策略师警告称，随着投资者消化债券收益率上升、估值过高和利率进一步下调的不确定性，当前“完美的”赚钱市场环境可能难以持续。其表示：“近期美国股市的强劲反弹使得当前股票市场的估值趋于完美。尽管我们预计全年股市将靠企业盈利驱动上涨，但股市愈发容易受到回调的冲击，尤其是如果债券收益率进一步上升或经济数据和盈利表现令人失望。”

消息人士：美国财政部预计将于周五晚些时候公布的一份声明，详细说明对俄罗斯石油实施新的制裁

两位知情人士透露，拜登政府计划对俄罗斯实施更多制裁，针对俄罗斯石油收入采取行动，打击运载俄罗斯原油的油轮。消息人士称，拜登政府正计划对以高于西方每桶60美元价格上限运载俄罗斯石油的油轮实施制裁。俄罗斯利用由老旧船只组成的所谓"影子船队"来规避价格上限。航运专家说，其中许多船只安全性较差，容易漏油。其中一位消息人士说："制裁措施相当庞大"。

另一位消息人士说，制裁措施还可能包括针对参与某些高于价格上限的石油交易网络的人员。拜登政府一直在寻求在当选总统特朗普于1月20日就职前加强对乌克兰的支持。目前尚不清楚特朗普将采取何种方式制裁俄罗斯。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:30 美国12月季调后非农就业人口(万人)

21:30 美国12月失业率

23:00 美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值

23:00 美国1月一年期通胀率预期初值

次日凌晨

02:00 美国至1月10日当周石油钻井总数(口)

编辑/ping

Hot News

In Pre-Market Trading on Friday, the three major index futures plummeted sharply, with non-farm data exceeding expectations.

In December, non-farm employment in the USA increased by 256,000 people, higher than the expected increase of 160,000 people and the previous increase of 212,000 people. The unemployment rate in the USA for December was 4.1%, with expectations at 4.2% and the previous value also at 4.2%.

Quantum Computing concept stocks are generally rising in Pre-Market Trading. $MicroCloud Hologram (HOLO.US)$an increase of nearly 30%, $Arqit Quantum (ARQQ.US)$up more than 8%,$SEALSQ Corp (LAES.US)$Increased by nearly 7%,$IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$Up over 5%.

Due to Delta Air Lines' performance exceeding market expectations, the Aviation Sector rose broadly in Pre-Market Trading. $United Airlines (UAL.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, up over 7%. $American Airlines (AAL.US)$Increased by nearly 6%.

NVIDIA dropped slightly in Pre-Market Trading, while AMD fell more than 2%, as the USA plans to tighten export restrictions on AI Chips from NVIDIA and AMD.

USA stock market.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Slight decline in Pre-Market Trading.$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Falling nearly 2%. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, President Biden, who is about to step down, is preparing to make a final effort to prevent advanced technology from falling into the hands of China and Russia. New large-scale global restrictions on the export of AI Chips from companies like NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are expected to be implemented.

Taiwan Semiconductor's shares rose nearly 2% in Pre-Market Trading, with Q4 2024 sales exceeding expectations.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Pre-Market Trading rose 2.29%. Taiwan Semiconductor's latest revenue report shows that the consolidated revenue for December 2024 is approximately NT$278.163 billion, an increase of 0.8% from last month and 57.8% from the same period last year. Cumulatively, the revenue from January to December 2024 is approximately NT$2,894.38 billion, an increase of 33.9% from the same period last year. Taiwan Semiconductor's Q4 2024 sales exceeded expectations, strengthening investor expectations that the wave of AI hardware spending will continue into 2025.

Nuclear Power company Constellation Energy rose over 13% in Pre-Market Trading after agreeing to acquire Calpine for $26.6 billion.

$Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$Pre-Market Trading rose over 13%, and the company has agreed to acquire Calpine, consolidating two of the largest Electrical Utilities producers in the USA. Constellation stated on Friday that this cash and stock transaction, valued at approximately $26.6 billion, includes assuming Calpine's debts.

Delta Air Lines rose over 9% in Pre-Market Trading, with adjusted EPS and revenue for Q4 exceeding expectations.

$Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$Pre-Market Trading rose over 9%. In news, Delta Air Lines reported adjusted revenue of $14.44 billion for the fourth quarter, exceeding the estimated $14.16 billion; adjusted EPS was $1.85, above the estimated $1.76.

Walgreens Boots Alliance rose nearly 14% in Pre-Market Trading, as the company's Q1 performance for fiscal 2025 exceeded expectations, raising the full-year EPS guidance.

$Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA.US)$The report for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 showed a sales growth of 7.5%, reaching $39.5 billion, higher than the expected $37.35 billion, while the EPS loss was $0.31, compared to a loss of $0.08 in the same period last year. The adjusted EPS decreased from $0.66 to $0.51, primarily due to$US Retail Sales (USRS.EC)$a decline and reduced gains from sale-leaseback transactions. The company maintains its adjusted EPS guidance range for fiscal 2025 at $1.40-$1.80.

Tesla resolved the recall issue of 239,000 vehicles through a software update, launching the new Model Y SUV.

This is part of the recall of 239,382 vehicles by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the USA.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$A wireless software update has been conducted. The update aims to address the issue of the computer circuit board potentially short-circuiting, which could result in the loss of the rearview camera image. This recall covers the 2024-2025 Model 3, Model S, 2023-2025 Model X, and 2023-2025 Model Y models.

Additionally, Tesla's official website shows that the company officially launched the new Model Y SUV in China on Friday and began accepting orders. The starting price for the standard version of the new Model Y (code-named Juniper) is 0.2635 million yuan (approximately 35,900 USD).

Novo-Nordisk A/S is up over 2% in pre-market trading, expanding its collaboration with Valo Health to develop weight loss drugs using AI.

Danish pharmaceutical giant.$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$Up over 2% in pre-market trading. According to reports, the company and U.S. technology firm Valo Health recently agreed to expand the scope of their collaboration to develop up to 11 drugs in 2023, utilizing human data and AI to develop up to 20 new therapies targeting obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases.

Tensions escalate! The Starbucks union has filed 34 federal complaints.

$Starbucks (SBUX.US)$This week, the union submitted 34 complaints against the company to the USA Labor Relations Board, indicating that tensions between Starbucks and the union are escalating. These complaints were submitted by the Starbucks Workers United to the USA Labor Relations Board, accusing Starbucks of violating federal labor laws in stores across 16 states by selectively hiring and firing employees over union activities in recent months.

NXP Semiconductors rose 3% in Pre-Market Trading, along with$Honeywell (HON.US)$expanding cooperation, Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating to "Buy".

$NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, it rose nearly 2%. According to news, Honeywell and NXP Semiconductors announced that they will expand their cooperation to jointly develop AI-driven technologies in the aviation and autonomous flight sector. Under the cooperation agreement, the two companies will combine Honeywell's Anthem Electric Appliances (a cloud-connected cockpit system) and NXP's computing architecture to enhance flight planning and management. In addition, Goldman Sachs upgraded NXP Semiconductors' rating from Neutral to Buy, with a Target Price of $257, representing a 23% increase.

Biotechnology companies.$Akoya Biosciences (AKYA.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, the stock rose over 20%, as the company has agreed to be acquired in an all-stock transaction.$Quanterix (QTRX.US)$acquired

the largest air firefighting company in the USA.$Bridger Aerospace (BAER.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, the stock rose over 44%.

Agora rose over 6% in Pre-Market Trading, along with$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$China reaches cooperation.

$Agora (API.US)$Pre-Market Trading rises over 6%. In terms of news, Agora has recently reached a cooperation with Microsoft China. Microsoft is focused on the quality of large models, and when large models are applied to enterprises or end customers, many engineering problems arise, especially when integrating multimodal capabilities, where requirements for bandwidth and audio-video become increasingly stringent. The audio-video sector that Agora is focused on can accelerate optimization, reduce costs, and achieve a closed loop for last-mile transmission.

Global macro

Tonight, will non-farm payrolls "testify" for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the monthly non-farm employment report on Friday. The U.S. December non-farm employment report is expected to show healthy growth in new jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged, indicating that the labor market has once again broken the expectation of a larger slowdown. According to economists' expectations, last month, non-farm employment may have increased by 0.165 million people. This figure represents a decline from 0.227 million in November. These data will support the Federal Reserve's intention to refocus on inflation.

Multiple Federal Reserve officials have spoken out, suggesting a pause in interest rate cuts.

Several Federal Reserve officials confirmed on Thursday that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates at current levels for an extended period, only reducing rates again when inflation shows significant signs of cooling. Boston Fed President Collins stated that because officials face "considerable uncertainty" regarding the U.S. economic outlook, the pace of adjusting rates should now be slowed. Collins noted that the Fed's "policy is prepared to make necessary adjustments based on changing circumstances — if inflation does not make further progress, it will be maintained at current levels for a longer time."

Goldman Sachs strategists warn: The pricing of U.S. stocks is at a "perfect level" and is likely to experience a pullback.

Goldman Sachs' Chief Global Equity Strategist warned that as investors digest the rise in bond yields, overvaluation, and uncertainties surrounding further rate cuts, the currently "perfect" market environment for making money may be difficult to sustain. He stated: "The recent strong rebound in the U.S. stock market has caused current stock market valuations to approach perfection. While we expect the stock market to rise driven by corporate earnings throughout the year, it becomes increasingly vulnerable to corrections, especially if bond yields rise further or economic data and earnings performance disappoint."

Sources: The U.S. Treasury is expected to announce a statement detailing new sanctions on Russian oil later on Friday.

Two insiders revealed that the Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia, targeting Russian oil revenues and taking actions against tankers transporting Russian crude oil. Sources indicated that the Biden administration is planning to impose sanctions on tankers that carry Russian oil above the Western price cap of $60 per barrel. Russia has been using a so-called "shadow fleet" consisting of old ships to evade the price cap. Shipping experts stated that many of the vessels are less safe and prone to oil leaks. One source remarked: "The sanctions are quite extensive."

Another source mentioned that the sanctions may also target individuals involved in certain oil trading networks that exceed the price cap. The Biden administration has been seeking to strengthen support for Ukraine ahead of President Trump's inauguration on January 20. It is still unclear what measures Trump will take to sanction Russia.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder of Macroeconomic Events in the USA

(All in Peking Time)

21:30 USA Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment Population for December (Ten Thousand People)

21:30 USA Unemployment Rate for December

23:00 USA Preliminary Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for January

23:00 USA Preliminary One-Year Inflation Rate Expectation for January

Next early morning

02:00 USA Total Number of Oil Rigs for the Week Ending January 10

Editor/ping

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