这与2024年开年时华尔街对印股的看涨情绪形成鲜明对比，当时分析师预计印股将跑赢标普500指数。展望后市，华尔街对印度股市的未来走势观点不一。Since the peak last September, India's benchmark stock index Nifty 50 Index has fallen over 10%, entering a correction zone. Some believe that slowing corporate earnings will drag down India's stock market performance this year, but most opinions remain bullish on Indian stocks, expecting a possible decline in the fiscal deficit rate, increased government investment in infrastructure, and a return of Indian stock valuations to a reasonable range to support the recovery of Indian stocks.
The Indian stock market is in a correction range; will it regain its upward momentum next?
The Indian stock market had a poor start in 2025, with the benchmark index Nifty 50 falling for three consecutive days, accumulating a decline of over 10% since the peak at the end of September last year, re-entering the adjustment range.
This contrasts sharply with the bullish sentiment on Wall Street for Indian stocks at the beginning of 2024, when Analysts expected Indian stocks to outperform the S&P 500 Index. Looking ahead, opinions on the future trend of the Indian stock market are divided on Wall Street.
HSBC's Asia Pacific strategist Herald van der Linde's team stated in a report on Thursday that due to disappointing corporate earnings, the growth forecast for the Nifty 50 Index for the fiscal year 2025 has been revised down from 15% to 5%, and the rating for the Indian stock market has been downgraded to neutral.
However, most opinions remain optimistic about Indian stocks.
Bernstein strategist Venugopal Garre believes that the Indian stock market has bottomed out and expects economic growth to accelerate in the next 3-6 months, forecasting that the Nifty 50 Index will reach 26,500 points by the end of this year, a 13% increase from current levels.
Morgan Stanley stated that the Indian central bank may reduce the fiscal deficit when announcing the budget in February, which could lower bond yields and reduce corporate borrowing costs.
Citigroup stock strategist Surendra Goyal shares a similar view, expecting the Indian economy to grow by 6.5% this year, mainly driven by government infrastructure spending:
"Considering that the recent adjustments have made market valuations more reasonable, we hold a constructive view on stock market returns. We expect the Nifty 50 Index to reach 26,000 points by the end of the year, up 10.5% from current levels."
Abhiram Eleswarapu, head of Indian equities at BNP Paribas, stated that the Indian market is currently in a "soft phase" due to high valuations. However, this "slight pullback" may soon end, and the Indian stock market may return to high single-digit growth from March to the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs Indian Industry Analyst Pulkit Patn also expects that with increased infrastructure spending and high demand for residential housing, India's cement industry will expand strongly in the second half of this year, leading to relatively strong demand for infrastructure and related materials.
