#ForexTechnical analysis.#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 周五(1月10日)欧市早盘，美元指数基本持稳，目前位于109.25附近；现货黄金维持日内反弹走势，目前位于2676美元/盎司附近。本交易日，投资者将迎来美国非农就业报告，预计将引发市场剧烈波动。投资者需要警惕非农公布后日本干预汇市这一风险。知名财经资讯网站Economies.com周五最新撰文，对欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/日元和黄金最新走势进行前瞻分析。
At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the USA will release the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report. Analysts expect that in December last year,Non-farm employmentIt is expected to increase by 0.16 million people, while in November, it surged by 0.227 million. In addition, the unemployment rate in the USA is expected to remain at 4.2% in December.
瑞银经济学家预计，12月非农就业人数将增加0.18 million人，高于市场普遍预期的0.16 million人。瑞银Shahab Jalinoos等分析师在最新报告中表示，要对美元产生足够的冲击，需要出现低于0.1 million的就业增长数据，或者失业率至少上升到4.4%。
交易员对日本干预汇市以支撑日元的风险不断上升保持警惕，周五晚些时候公布的美国就业报告可能成为日元大幅波动的催化剂。
The yen has approached the level of 160 yen to 1 dollar, and if it falls below this level, Japanese policymakers will be more concerned about the impact of a weak yen on businesses and consumers. Analysts believe that ifNon-farm Employment Datastrong, the yen could drop to the aforementioned psychological level. This, in turn, would bring the decades-low point of 161.95 into focus.
Bonds from Tokyo Monex Company andForex tradingAnalyst Tsutomu Soma said: “If the non-farm payroll data is released and USD/JPY approaches 160, intervention is possible, but there might first be some verbal warnings. If the employment data is strong, the market will have no choice but to Buy dollars.”
In addition, at 23:00 Beijing time on Friday, the preliminary value of the US January Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released, expected to be 73.8, with a final value of 74.0 last December.
FXStreet Analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that market focus is turning to the upcoming release of US non-farm payroll data and Michigan consumer confidence data for further economic clues. If both of these data points are stronger than expected, Gold may decline due to the overall strengthening of the dollar.
Below is Economies.com's technical analysis of major currency pairs and gold:
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is situated around 1.0300. It is worth noting that the stochastic indicators have significantly lost their positive momentum, waiting for this factor to drive the exchange rate back into the expected bearish trend today, with the main targets aimed at 1.0275 and 1.0220.
(EUR/USD 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)
The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) continues to support EUR/USD in a bearish trend. As long as the exchange rate remains stable below the levels of 1.0425 and 1.0455, the bearish expectations are still valid.
It is expected that today EUR/USD will trade withinResistanceBetween 1.0225 and the Resistance at 1.0370.
The expected trend for EUR/USD today is Bearish.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has shown a strong downward trend, breaking below our expected target of 1.2320, and is expected to decline further both intraday and in the short term. Since GBP/USD has broken below the previously recorded low of 1.2300, this paves the way for the exchange rate to test the 1.2115 area, which represents the bearish channel support line.
(GBP/USD 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)
Therefore, we will continue to predict that GBP/USD will remain in a bearish trend for some time. It should be considered that if GBP/USD breaks above the levels of 1.2300 and 1.2320, this may drive the exchange rate to begin recovering attempts, gaining some intraday increases, before likely falling again.
It is expected that today GBP/USD will trade between the Resistance at 1.2200 and the Resistance at 1.2340.
The expected trend for GBP/USD today is Bearish.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY is stable above 157.92, continuing to be supported by the 50-period EMA. Therefore, we wait for the exchange rate to recover the expected bullish trend in the near future. As shown in the figure, the USD/JPY is trading within a bullish channel, with the next main target at 160.00.
(USD/JPY 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)
It should be noted that the condition for the USD/JPY to continue its bullish trend is for the exchange rate to remain above 157.92, and most importantly, to stay above 157.35.
It is expected that today's USD/JPY trading will be between the support level of 157.50 and the resistance level of 159.00.
Today's expected trend for USD/JPY is bullish.
Gold
Gold prices are showing a bullish tendency and are approaching our expected bullish target of 2700.00 USD/ounce. The gold price previously completed a double bottom formation, which supports the upward trend. It should be noted that if the gold price breaks through 2700.00 USD/ounce, this will drive the price further up, with the next bullish target at 2760.00 USD/ounce.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart Source: Economies.com)
The condition for gold to continue its bullish trend is that the price remains stable above 2640.00 USD/ounce; once it falls below this level, it will put the gold price under bearish pressure, with the first target being to test the 2600.00 USD/ounce area.
Today, gold trading is expected to be between the support level of 2650.00 USD/oz and the resistance level of 2685.00 USD/oz.
The expected trend for gold prices today is bullish.
