Domestic gas turbine manufacturers are currently still focused on lightweight gas turbines, while the domestic substitution of heavy gas turbines is in progress.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, GF SEC released a Research Report stating that, based on data from the Power Control public account, Mitsubishi Power Ltd. expects that by 2026, the annual order volume for global gas turbines will increase by 50% compared to the past three years, partly due to the growth of datacenters. The global leaders in gas turbines mainly include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Siemens Energy, and General (GE Vernova), which together hold 76% of the global market share according to straitsresearch. Domestic gas turbine manufacturers currently focus on light gas turbines, with heavy-duty gas turbine localization efforts underway, the main companies include Dongfang Electric Corporation, United Energy (Shanghai Electric Group holds shares), and AECC Aviation Power, with hopes for accelerated localization progress in the future.
GF Securities' main points are as follows:
Gas turbines can typically serve as the primary power source for datacenters in North America.
Traditional datacenters rely on the grid as the primary power source and diesel Generators as backup; however, due to the instability of the North American power grid and the usual construction of large datacenters (over 60MW), which have huge power consumption, the USA’s basic electrical infrastructure struggles to meet demand, necessitating the use of medium gas turbines (10-100MW) or heavy gas turbines (over 100MW) as the main power source. Numerous overseas cloud companies are significantly ramping up the construction of datacenters, ushering in a strong growth cycle for North American computing infrastructure. According to a statement from Microsoft Vice President Brad Smith, Microsoft will invest approximately 80 billion USD in FY25 to build AIDC for training AI and globally deploying AI applications.
Benefiting from the demand wave for datacenter construction in North America, international giant gas turbine orders are rapidly growing.
According to data from the Power Control public account, Mitsubishi Power Ltd. expects that by 2026, the annual order volume for global gas turbines will increase by 50% compared to the past three years, partly due to the growth of datacenters. According to the Gas Turbine Focus public account, GE Vernova anticipates securing 20GW of global gas turbine orders annually over the next four years, with orders from the USA accounting for more than half. According to various companies' Earnings Reports, Siemens Energy signed new gas service orders worth 16.365 billion euros in FY24 (Q4 23 - Q3 24), a year-on-year increase of 26.89%; GE Vernova received orders for 78 gas turbines (equivalent to 14GW) in Q1-3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.5% in power terms.
The global pattern of gas turbines is concentrated, with significant potential opportunities for domestic matching.
The global leaders in gas turbines mainly include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Siemens Energy, and General Electric (GE Vernova). According to straitsresearch, these three companies account for 76% of the global market share. Domestic gas turbine manufacturers are currently still focused on light gas turbines, while the domestic replacement of heavy gas turbines is underway, with major manufacturers including Dongfang Electric Corporation, United Power (Shanghai Electric Group holding shares), and AECC Aviation Power. The pace of domestic replacement is expected to accelerate in the future. In addition, domestic manufacturers have supply opportunities for gas turbine components (Blades, casings, etc.) and unit matching (steam turbines, Generators), benefiting from the strong demand for orders from foreign giants, which presents significant potential opportunities for component suppliers, including Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical, LianDe Co., Himile Mechanical Science and Technology, and Jiangsu Zhenjiang New Energy Equipment.
Regarding Symbol.
Recommended Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical (603308.SH) (gas turbine Blades), LianDe Co. (605060.SH) (Caterpillar gas turbine casting supplier), Himile Mechanical Science and Technology (002595.SZ) (gas turbine casings), and suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Zhenjiang New Energy Equipment (603507.SH) (Siemens gas turbine Steel structure supplier).
Risk Warning
Downstream AIDC capital expenditure fluctuations; supply chain price fluctuations; domestic manufacturers' market share expansion not meeting expectations.