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高盛警告:未来十年标普500指数总回报或仅为3%

Goldman Sachs warns that the total return of the S&P 500 Index over the next decade may be only 3%.

Gelonghui Finance ·  14:57

Glonhui, January 10 | Goldman Sachs Analyst Peter Oppenheimer issued a warning, stating that the recent strong rebound in U.S. stocks has made the current stock market valuations approach perfect levels. He believes that the ideal profit environment for U.S. stocks may not last long, as investors are digesting the rise in bond yields, valuation inflation, and the uncertainty surrounding further interest rate cuts. Although the stock market is expected to rise further within the year, mainly driven by profits, it will become increasingly susceptible to further increases in bond yields, as well as disappointing economic data or profit growth. He mentioned that the high valuations of stocks may limit future returns, as research has found that it is extremely difficult for companies to maintain high sales and profit margins in the long term, which may lead investors to choose to Sell their stocks due to poor performance. Additionally, in the next decade, stocks may face fierce competition from Other Assets, such as Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs expects the total return of the S&P 500 Index to be only 3% over the next ten years. He also mentioned that the unusually high market concentration increases the risk of portfolios, particularly worried that Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon account for a quarter of the S&P 500 Index. This increased concentration could lead to a broader market adjustment if these companies perform disappointingly or if the trading environment worsens.

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