Source: Jinshi Data

According to Goldman Sachs, the US stock market may react differently to the non-farm payroll report for December, which will be released on Friday, depending on the specific numbers. It is generally expected that the pace of job growth in the US economy will slow down last month.

According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the US is expected to add jobs in December.Non-farm employmentAn increase of 0.16 million people is possible, which is lower than the 0.227 million in November. The Goldman Sachs economic team expects that 0.125 million new jobs will be added in December, and the unemployment rate may rise from 4.2% in November to 4.3%.

John Flood, a strategist at Goldman Sachs responsible for Global Banks and Markets, stated that while job growth exceeding 0.155 million new positions would indicate a resilient labor market and a robust US economy, the stock market might not favor this positive surprise as it could put upward pressure on US Treasury yields.

Flood mentioned in a note to clients on Wednesday, 'If the non-farm numbers are too hot, interest rates will rise (which is obviously not what the stock market wants to see); if the non-farm numbers are too weak, market concerns will quickly shift from interest rates to issues of economic growth.'

The strategist noted that the 'sweet spot' for the non-farm data in the US stock market lies between an increase of 0.1 million to 0.125 million. Non-farm payroll figures in this range could trigger a knee-jerk rise in the S&P 500 Index, with increases between 0.5% to 1%. Conversely, if the non-farm job increase falls between 0.175 million and 0.2 million, a similar magnitude of sell-off in the S&P 500 Index would occur. Flood indicated that if the data reached 0.2 million, the S&P 500 Index might drop by at least 1%.

The non-farm report for December is one of the last crucial pieces of data before the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting at the end of this month. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that the market is pricing in a 93% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at the end of the January 28-29 meeting.

During the Asia session on Friday, Asian stock markets and US stock futures fell, indicating that investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of the employment data release.

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编辑/jayden