理想2024 年12 月销量达5.9 万辆创历史新高，全年销量突破50 万辆。2024 年12 月理想销量58,513 辆，同比增长16.2%，环比增长20.1%，1-12 月累计销量50.1 万辆，同比增长33.1%。2024Q4 理想交付15.9 万辆，同比增长20.4%，环比增长3.8%，达理想此前四季度销量指引（16~17 万辆）的下限。分周数据来看，理想已连续36 周获中国市场新势力品牌销量第一，第49 周（12.2-12.8）销量1.26 万辆，第50 周（12.9-12.15）销量1.41 万辆，第51 周（12.16-12.22）销量1.39 万辆，第52 周（12.23-12.29）销量1.34 万辆。Incident description
Ideal sold 0.059 million vehicles in December 2024, up 16.2% year on year and 20.1% month on month.
Incident Reviews
Ideal's sales volume reached a record high of 0.059 million units in December 2024, with annual sales exceeding 0.5 million units. In December 2024, the ideal sales volume was 58,513 vehicles, up 16.2% year on year, up 20.1% month on month. The cumulative sales volume for January-December was 0.501 million units, up 33.1% year on year. 2024Q4 Ideal delivered 0.159 million vehicles, up 20.4% year on year and 3.8% month on month, reaching the lower limit of Ideal's sales guidelines for the previous four quarters (16 to 0.17 million units). According to weekly data, Ideal has been the number one selling brand in the Chinese market for 36 consecutive weeks, selling 0.0126 million units in the 49th week (12.2-12.8), 0.0141 million units in the 50th week (12.9-12.15), 0.0139 million units in the 51st week (12.16-12.22), and 0.0134 million units in the 52nd week (12.23-12.29).
Under the “dual energy strategy”, the rapid layout of supercharging stations across the country and intelligent technology enhances the user experience. 1) Electricity: On March 1, Ideal 5C supercharging piles were officially put into use. As of December 31, 2024, 1,727 ideal supercharging stations have been put into use, an increase of 592 over the previous month, with 9,100 charging stations, an increase of 3,420 over the previous month. 2) Intelligence: Ideal Autonomous Driving continues to be iterated. Ideal Auto's OTA 7.0 vehicle system will be launched within January 2025, high-speed NOA will be upgraded to an end-to-end technical architecture, and the full-stack self-developed end-to-end +VLM dual system will open the boundary between urban NOA and high-speed NOA to achieve end-to-end capabilities in all scenarios. At the same time, the ideal student equipped with MindGPT, a large model with a self-developed AI base, has officially landed on the mobile device and is open to all users to download.
Ideal Auto has clear plans for subsequent models, continuous layout of direct sales channels, and broad scope for future sales. At present, Ideal has formed a product layout of “4 extended-range electric models+1 high-voltage pure electric model”. The product matrix covers a market of more than 0.2 million. Looking forward to 2025, there will still be a strong new vehicle cycle to open up sales space. At the same time, the ideal channel structure continues to be optimized and the number continues to increase. By the end of December 2024, Ideal Auto had 502 retail centers across the country, covering 150 cities, an increase of 27 compared to the end of last month; 478 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized sheet spray centers, covering 225 cities, an increase of 27 compared to the end of last month.
Ideal Auto's product advantages and brand design are deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the “Dual Energy Strategy” is expected to further expand the advantages of Ideal Auto.
Subsequent new models will be launched one after another to further improve the ideal product matrix and increase the ideal overall sales space. The combined scale effect of high bike sales prices is expected to maintain a good profit level. Net profit (GAAP) is expected to be 8.1, 14.68, and 20.08 billion yuan respectively for 2024-2026, corresponding PE is 22.8X, 12.6X, 9.2X, and net profit (non-GAAP) is 11.1, 17.88, and 23.28 billion yuan respectively, corresponding PE is 16.6X, 10.3X, 7.9X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk Alerts
1. The global economic recovery was weaker than expected;
2. Increased competition in the industry weakens corporate profits.