Hot News

• This year, the Committee unanimously supports "gradual interest rate cuts", and senior officials of the Federal Reserve hint at support for "higher for longer".

This year, Committee member and Boston Fed President Collins said the economic outlook is very uncertain and requires gradual and patient interest rate cuts, expecting the number of cuts this year to decrease to two compared to previous expectations; another Committee member this year and Kansas City Fed President Schmidt stated that they support gradual interest rate cuts if economic data improves; the Federal Reserve is close to a neutral interest rate and is nearing its dual mandate of inflation and employment, and there is a need for balance sheet reduction; 2026 Committee member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker supports further interest rate cuts this year, but timing depends on the data, and actions should be paused now; 2027 Committee member and Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that it is the term premium rather than inflation that drives up long-term interest rates.

• Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: supports a rate cut in December, which is the final step in the policy recalibration phase.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, who is expected to be elevated by Trump, stated that she believes inflation risks remain, and policymakers should act cautiously when further cutting rates. She supports the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December as she believes it is the "final step in the policy recalibration phase" and she could have supported not taking action at that meeting. Reports indicate that Trump's advisors are considering how to reshape the Federal Reserve leadership, including promoting Bowman to Vice Chairman responsible for financial regulation.

• With the twin pressures of capital outflow and yen depreciation, is the probability of the Bank of Japan being forced to raise interest rates in January increasing?

Bank of America believes that Japan is still trapped in the policy dilemma known as the "impossible trinity." In January, capital outflows from individual investors reached a new record, coupled with the Bank of Japan's previous dovish stance, which resulted in a larger and more unpredictable decline of the yen, thereby increasing the likelihood of interest rate hikes. If USD/JPY exceeds 160, the possibility of rate hikes in January will exceed 55%.

• HSBC expects the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to rise by 21% this year and has raised its year-end target.

$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Bullish on the stocks of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. HSBC strategists Herald van der Linde and Prerna Garg and others wrote in their report, $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$ may rise by 21% in 2025, and they have raised the year-end valuation of the index from the previous forecast of 8,610 points to 8,800 points. They also upgraded the rating for the Hong Kong market from neutral to overweight while downgrading the rating for India to neutral. The rating for South Korean stocks was upgraded from underweight to neutral. HSBC strategists stated that lower interest rates, alongside measures to boost the tourism industry and revitalize the local real estate sector, will support the Hong Kong stock market.

Review of the U.S. stock market.

• Trading was suspended on Thursday in memory of former US President Carter.

As of the time of writing, the three major Equity Index futures are down, $E-mini Dow Futures(MAR5) (YMmain.US)$ down 0.21%, $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(MAR5) (ESmain.US)$ down 0.25%, $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(MAR5) (NQmain.US)$ down 0.32%.

• Bitcoin once fell below 92,000 USD, involving the U.S. Department of Justice and Musk.

Overnight, Bitcoin briefly fell below 92,000 USD, but has now rebounded to above 92,000 USD. According to multiple media reports, the source of the latest wave of market turmoil was a court ruling that spread online: the U.S. Department of Justice received approval from the Northern District Court of California to sell 69,370 Bitcoins seized from the illegal dark web marketplace 'Silk Road.' At this week's CES, CEO Linda Yaccarino of X platform reaffirmed that a payment feature called 'X Money' will be launched in 2025. She previously stated that the company has been working hard to obtain money transmission licenses in various states, aiming to seamlessly integrate financial services into social media.

• The Netherlands collaborates with NVIDIA to accelerate the construction of AI supercomputer facilities.

On Thursday, the Dutch government announced a partnership with $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$to promote the potential construction of an artificial intelligence (AI) facility, providing essential hardware and technical expertise for the facility. As part of the EU's effort to promote the European digital economy, the Netherlands plans to construct a new facility that can involve AI 'supercomputers' in research and development. It is understood that the Dutch government allocated 0.2045 billion euros (0.21 billion USD) last year for this purpose and plans to further support the project using European subsidy funds.

• Siasun Robot&Automation expands production a hundredfold, and autonomous driving "surpasses humans"... Musk is online in the live stream "painting a vision".

At the CES exhibition, Musk participated in an interview conducted by Stagwell CEO Mark Penn via video livestream, revealing $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Key clues about humanoid robots and FSD in the "AI+" layout. In terms of capacity planning, Musk has set specific goals: Tesla plans to produce thousands of humanoid robots Optimus by 2025, which will initially be tested in Tesla factories. "If all goes well, we plan to increase production by tenfold in 2026 compared to 2025, which is about 0.05 million to 0.1 million units; in the following year, it will further increase to tenfold, starting from 0.5 million units." In other words, if Musk's "vision" can be realized, the production of Optimus in 2027 will be 100 times that of 2025.

• Google and Microsoft also show goodwill to the incoming president! Each donated 1 million dollars to the Trump inauguration fund.

On Thursday local time, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ announced a donation of 1 million dollars to Trump's inauguration fund, trying to strengthen relations with the new government. Before this, other tech leaders also donated the same amount of money. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ also announced the donation news earlier this week, with its global government affairs and public policy leader, Karan Bhatia, stating, "Google is pleased to support the presidential inauguration in 2025 and will livestream on YouTube, providing a direct link on our homepage. In addition to technical support, we will also donate funds to the inauguration fund."

Tech companies have long been the target of fierce criticism from Trump and his allies, and they have not shied away from criticism of the industry after the election. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has met with Trump multiple times, as the company hopes that under Trump's leadership, the US government will advance AI policies in a favorable direction.

• Apple's vice president bids farewell to Indonesia! At the end of negotiations, the Indonesian minister surprisingly reaffirms the iPhone 16 ban.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ Negotiations with the Indonesian government encountered a last-minute reversal, and the Apple executive in charge of the negotiations left Indonesia on Wednesday, while the remaining team members continued the talks. Last October, Apple was banned from selling the iPhone 16 series due to not meeting Indonesia's localization production requirements; Apple proposed to invest 1 billion USD to build a factory and train students, but the Indonesian Minister of Industry insisted on Apple producing iPhone 16 components.

Hong Kong market outlook

• Northbound capital has continuously bought over 10 billion HKD of Hong Kong stocks for three days! Today, they made another large purchase of TENCENT for 6 billion HKD.

On January 9 (Thursday), southbound funds net purchased 11.363 billion HKD of Hong Kong stocks.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$、$SMIC (00981.HK)$Net purchases of 5.999 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.816 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.477 billion Hong Kong dollars were recorded respectively;

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$、$ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK)$Net sales of 0.693 billion Hong Kong dollars and 0.12 billion Hong Kong dollars were recorded respectively.

• TENCENT has continuously reduced its Shareholding in WEIMOB INC and UBTECH, cashing out 1.67 billion HKD, and WEIMOB INC has responded.

Documents from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange show, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ the Shareholding ratio in $WEIMOB INC (02013.HK)$ has decreased from 8.39% to 2.94%; in $UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880.HK)$ the Shareholding ratio has reduced from 8.05% to 2.08%. It is worth noting that TENCENT's continuous reduction of its Shareholding in WEIMOB INC and UBTECH has resulted in a total cashing out of 1.67 billion HKD. In response to this, related individuals stated that the reduction by shareholder TENCENT has no impact on the company's Business level, and this should be a decision made by the shareholder based on their own investment considerations, and their reduction behavior is not solely targeted at this company.

Last night, WEIMOB INC also announced that the company and TENCENT will continue to maintain a mutually beneficial business cooperation relationship. The company will continue to serve as a service provider for WeChat mini shops, mini programs, and Tencent advertising, providing high-quality Saas products and precise Marketing Services to merchants within the Tencent ecosystem, promoting merchant business growth. As of the time of writing, UBTECH has not yet released any related announcements.

Today's focus

Keywords: USA Non-Farm Employment Data, Delta Air Lines Performance, Bruko Listing

On Friday, regarding economic data, the USA will announce the first Non-Farm Employment Data for 2025, followed by the USA unemployment rate, initial value of one-year inflation expectations, and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

In terms of financial events, 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President Schmidt will speak on economic and monetary policy outlook; 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will also speak.

In US stock performance, $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ will report Q4 revenue for 2024.

Regarding the IPOs, $YIBIN BANK (02596.HK)$ 、 $NEW GONOW RV (00805.HK)$ announced the lottery results, $BLOKS (00325.HK)$ 、 $NUMANS (02530.HK)$ is listing today; $SAIMO (02571.HK)$ The IPO Subscription has ended.

Futubull Morning News:

A person must understand the interaction between rationality and emotion as they alternately influence the market.
——Bernard Baruch

Editor/Rocky