Federal Reserve officials Collins, Schmidt, and Harker emphasized the need to remain cautious and patient, while Governor Bowman called for vigilance regarding inflation risks.
Several Federal Reserve officials confirmed on Thursday that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates at current levels for an extended period, and will only lower rates again if inflation decreases significantly.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated on Thursday that officials should slow the pace of interest rate adjustments due to considerable uncertainties in the outlook for the USA economy. Officials from other regional Feds and Fed Governor Bowman also agreed with this view.
Collins said at an event in Boston: "The Fed's policy is prepared to make necessary adjustments based on changing circumstances—if there is no further progress on inflation, the Fed will maintain the current level of interest rates for a longer time."
The inflation indicators favored by the Fed rose 2.4% in the year ending last November, and increased 2.8% after excluding food and Energy, both above the Fed's target of 2%. Collins added that the economic situation is "good," but noted that progress in cooling inflation this year may be slower than previously anticipated.
She mentioned that the incoming Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress may introduce new economic policies, which could alter the trajectory of the economy, but it's too early to accurately estimate the outcomes.
Bowman pointed out that persistent inflation risks justify slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts. She stated, "I still prefer to adjust policies cautiously and gradually." Bowman noted that she voted to lower rates last month, but she added that she could have supported keeping borrowing costs stable.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said that interest rates might be close to a level that neither stimulates nor slows down the economy. Like Collins, Schmid has voting rights on the FOMC this year.
In an interview with Bloomberg News on Wednesday, Collins also stated that she favors fewer rate cuts this year than previously expected a few months ago. She mentioned that her outlook on interest rates is consistent with the median forecast released by officials after the Fed's December meeting, indicating two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also indicated in a speech on Thursday that he is prepared to support further rate cuts in 2025, but the specific timing will depend on economic developments.
"I still believe we are on the path of lowering the policy interest rate. Looking at everything in front of us, I do not intend to deviate from this path or turn back," Harker said. "But the specific pace at which I continue down this path will fully depend on incoming data."
Policymakers lowered the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the December meeting, marking the third consecutive rate cut last year, bringing the total reduction for the year to a full percentage point. Many Fed officials have stated that it is appropriate to slow the pace of rate cuts now, as inflation remains above the 2% target, and the labor market is healthy.
According to Futures pricing, investors widely expect policymakers to keep rates stable when they gather in Washington on January 28-29.
Collins expressed on Thursday that her support for December's actions was "very reluctant." Collins stated, "Overall, the rate cut in December provides some additional assurance of maintaining a healthy labor market while keeping a restrictive policy stance, which is necessary for sustainably restoring price stability."