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The outlook for Trump's policies is uncertain, the Federal Reserve is cautious, and this year the voting committee unanimously supports gradual interest rate cuts.

今年票委、波士顿联储主席柯林斯称，经济前景很不确定，需要渐进且有耐心地降息，预计今年降息次数较之前预期减少至两次；另一今年票委、堪萨斯城联储主席施密德称，若经济数据改善，支持渐进降息；美联储接近中性利率，接近达成通胀和就业的双重使命，需进一步缩表；2026年票委、费城联储主席哈克称，支持今年进一步降息，但时间取决于数据，现在应暂停行动；2027年票委、里士满联储主席巴尔金称，推高长期利率的是期限溢价而非通胀。

包括今年有货币决策会议投票权的两名投票委员在内，美联储官员最近的表态暗示，鉴于特朗普上台后政策等影响带来的经济前景很不确定、通胀可能有上升的压力，他们对未来降息态度谨慎。

波士顿联储主席：经济前景很不确定，需要渐进且有耐心地降息

美东时间1月9日周四，2025年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的波士顿联储主席柯林斯（Susan Collins）表示，美国经济前景有“相当大的不确定性”，因此现在应该放慢降息速度。她说：

“我认为，当前的不确定性要求我们采取渐进且有耐心的政策制定方式。”

柯林斯评价，目前美国经济处于“良好状态”，通胀稳步脱离2022年的高峰。目前美联储的货币政策已经更接近中性水平，这允许联储采取渐进且有耐心的方式评估未来行动。

柯林斯称，美联储的“政策完全有能力根据不断变化的情况进行必要的调整——如果通胀没有进一步的（下行）进展，则（利率）将在当前水平维持更长时间，如有必要，则加快放松政策。”

柯林斯指出，特朗普政府和新一届国会上任后的贸易和财政政策可能改变经济的轨迹，不过现在估计结果为时过早。

在此之前，柯林斯周三对彭博社表示，她预计，2025年的通胀降温的进展可能比几个月前预期的慢。她对利率的预期与美联储2024年12月会后发布的官员预测中值一致。根据会后的经济展望和点阵图，联储官员预计今年将降息有两次25个基点的降息，比9月公布的预期次数四次减半。

堪萨斯城联储主席：联储接近中性利率，支持渐进降息，需进一步缩表

和柯林斯一样2025年有FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）本周四表示，利率可能非常接近更长期的中性水平。如果经济数据改善，他倾向于渐进式降息。未来任何进一步的降息都应该是循序渐进且由数据驱动的。经济的强劲将允许美联储保持耐心。

施密德称，美联储的大部分通胀和就业使命最近都已实现，很接近达成双重使命，需要开始缩减资产负债表（缩表），希望看到资产负债表规模继续下降。联储的持仓应该朝着只持有美国国债调整。

施密德称就业市场更疲软等仍健康，美联储有必要对通胀保持警惕，但同时，他对通胀将继续回落“相当乐观”，对经济增长和就业的前景也都感到乐观。

费城联储主席：支持今年进一步降息，但时间取决于数据，现在应暂停行动

2026年有FOMC会议投票权的费城联储主席哈克（Patrick Harker）周四表示，他准备支持在 2025 年进一步降息，但具体的行动时间取决于经济形势。中性利率存在不确定性，应当对此保持谨慎。哈克说：

“我仍然认为我们正处于降息的正轨。以目前我所看到的一切，我不会偏离这条道路或掉头。但我继续沿着这条道路前进的具体速度将完全取决于即将公布的数据。”

哈克称，通胀降至美联储目标2%所需的时间比预期的久，而且通胀下行的进展并不均衡。不过，他认为，美国经济总体强劲，劳动力市场已降温，靠近疫情前水平。

哈克强调美联储应该继续依赖数据，而不是“仓促”采取行动。他建议现在暂停降息，观察一段时间，“让数据发挥作用”。他说：

“我认为我们现在应该稍作停顿，看看情况会如何发展，我们可以暂时保持现状一段时间——可能不会太久。”

哈克预计通胀会在2026年回落到目标2%，但面临多种通胀上行的风险，在国外，有俄乌冲突、中东地区冲突、欧洲部分国家政府政局不稳。

谈到美国国内可能推升通胀的因素，哈克没有直接点名特朗普，而是说，未来可能的政策变化也许影响经济。此外，他认为禽流感也可能推升食品成本。

里士满联储主席：推高长期利率的是期限溢价而非通胀

2027年有FOMC会议投票权的里士满联储主席巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）周四表示，近期长期利率上升反映的是风险溢价上升，并不是出于市场对通胀的担忧。他说：

“我毫不怀疑，随着越来越多的联邦政府债券进入市场，有时会压倒需求，这就是收益率上升的原因。”
“我认为这不是（源于）通胀，而是期限溢价。期限溢价与风险有关——但我觉得它与长期供需平衡有关。”

巴尔金称，美国消费者的负债仍然低于2018年到2019年的水平。如果缺乏财政空间，将给未来造成衰退风险。

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编辑/Rocky

This year, the voting member and President of the Boston Federal Reserve, Collins, stated that the economic outlook is very uncertain, and requires a gradual and patient approach to interest rate cuts, expecting the number of cuts this year to be reduced to two from previous expectations; another voting member this year, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Schmidt, stated that if economic data improves, it supports gradual rate cuts; the Federal Reserve is close to the neutral interest rate, nearly achieving the dual mandate of inflation and employment, and further balance sheet reduction is needed; the 2026 voting member, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated support for further rate cuts this year, but the timing depends on the data, and action should be paused for now; the 2027 voting member, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that it is the term premium, not inflation, that drives up long-term interest rates.

Including two voting committee members who have voting rights in this year's monetary policy meeting, recent statements by Federal Reserve officials suggest that given the considerable uncertainty in the economic outlook due to policies since Trump's administration and potential upward pressure on inflation, they are cautious about the future stance on interest rate cuts.

Boston Federal Reserve President: The economic outlook is quite uncertain and requires gradual and patient interest rate cuts.

On Thursday, January 9, US Eastern Time, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins, who will have voting rights at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2025, stated that the economic outlook for the USA has 'considerable uncertainty,' therefore the pace of interest rate cuts should be slowed down now. She said:

"I believe the current uncertainty requires us to adopt a gradual and patient approach to policy making."

Collins evaluated that the current US economy is in 'good shape,' with inflation steadily moving away from the peaks of 2022. Currently, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closer to a neutral level, which allows the Fed to take a gradual and patient approach to assess future actions.

Collins stated that the Federal Reserve's 'policy is fully capable of making necessary adjustments according to changing circumstances—if inflation does not show further (downward) progress, interest rates will be maintained at current levels for a longer period, and if necessary, the policy will be eased more quickly.'

Collins pointed out that the trade and fiscal policies after the Trump administration and the new Congress may alter the trajectory of the economy, though it is too early to estimate the outcomes now.

Before this, Collins stated to Bloomberg on Wednesday that she expects the progress of inflation cooling in 2025 may be slower than previously anticipated a few months ago. Her expectations about interest rates are consistent with the median projections released by Federal Reserve officials after their December 2024 meeting. According to the economic outlook and dot plot released after the meeting, Federal Reserve officials expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, halving the expected four cuts announced in September.

Kansas City Fed President: The Federal Reserve is approaching neutral interest rates, supports gradual rate cuts, and further balance sheet reduction is necessary.

Like Collins, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who has voting rights for the FOMC meetings in 2025, stated on Thursday that interest rates may be very close to a longer-term neutral level. If economic data improves, he leans toward gradual rate cuts. Any further rate cuts in the future should be gradual and data-driven. The strength of the economy will allow the Federal Reserve to remain patient.

Schmid stated that most of the Federal Reserve's inflation and employment missions have recently been achieved, being very close to accomplishing the dual mandate, and they need to begin reducing their balance sheet, hoping to see the size of the balance sheet continue to decline. The Federal Reserve's Hold Positions should adjust to only holding US Treasury securities.

Schmid stated the employment market is still healthy despite being weaker, and it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to stay vigilant regarding inflation. However, he is "quite optimistic" that inflation will continue to decrease and feels optimistic about the prospects for economic growth and employment.

Philadelphia Fed President: Supports further rate cuts this year, but timing depends on data; now is the time to pause actions.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who will have voting rights at FOMC meetings in 2026, stated on Thursday that he is ready to support further rate cuts in 2025, but the specific timing of actions depends on economic conditions. There is uncertainty regarding neutral interest rates, and caution should be maintained. Harker said:

"I still believe we are on track for rate cuts. Based on everything I see at the moment, I will not deviate from this path or turn back. However, the specific pace at which I continue down this path will entirely depend on the data that is about to be released."

Harker stated that it will take longer than expected for inflation to drop to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and that the progress in reducing inflation is uneven. However, he believes that the overall US economy is strong, and the labor market has cooled, nearing pre-pandemic levels.

Harker emphasized that the Federal Reserve should continue to rely on data rather than act "hastily." He suggested pausing interest rate cuts now and observing for a while, "letting the data work." He said:

"I think we should pause for a moment and see how things develop; we can maintain the status quo for a while—perhaps not for too long."

Harker expects inflation to return to the target of 2% by 2026, but it faces multiple risks of rising inflation, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict abroad, conflicts in the Middle East, and political instability in certain European countries.

When discussing domestic factors that could drive up inflation, Harker did not directly name Trump, but mentioned that potential policy changes in the future might affect the economy. Additionally, he believes that Bird Flu might also increase food costs.

Richmond Federal Reserve President: The rise in long-term interest rates is due to term premiums rather than inflation.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin, who will have voting rights at the FOMC meeting in 2027, stated on Thursday that the recent rise in long-term interest rates reflects an increase in risk premiums, rather than concerns about inflation in the market. He said:

"I have no doubt that as more federal government Bonds enter the market, demand may be overwhelmed at times, which is the reason for the rise in yields."
I believe that this is not due to inflation, but rather to term premium. Term premium is related to risk — but I feel it is related to the long-term supply and demand balance.

Barkin stated that the debt of American Consumers remains lower than the levels of 2018 to 2019. A lack of fiscal space will create risks of recession in the future.

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Editor/Rocky

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