The S&P 500 entered uncharted territory in 2024, rallying 23.3% without a single daily close below its 200-day moving average.

In a note shared Thursday, Bank of America analystStephen Suttmeierhighlighted that this was only the 15th occurrence in nearly a century, with those years averaging an annual return of 25.4%.

However, history suggests that 2025 may not be as smooth for the index, as the probability of revisiting the key technical level dramatically increases.

The last time the S&P 500, as tracked by theSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), fell below its 200-day moving average occurred in November 2023. The 200-day moving...