At the 2025 CES, the two most talked-about companies addressed the core topic of AI PCs.

After the NVIDIA RTX 5090 graphics card made a big splash with the new generation Blackwell architecture, Huang Renxun completely ignited the CES opening mood. However, he still had to respond to the sharp topic of AI PC's sales not taking off during the post-conference discussions.

Old Huang admitted that the market sales of AI PCs in the past year were indeed disappointing, but he also provided a reason - it lies in the AI ecosystem's adaptation to PCs.

At the same time, LENOVO GROUP, known as the king of PCs with a series of new products attracting attention, also responded remotely to Huang Renxun's comments, admitting that AI PC's sales growth has indeed been relatively stable, Old Huang is not wrong, but he emphasized -

The replacement wave of AI PCs is coming, with the key time point being 2025.

Is AI PC a false demand?

After NVIDIA's CES press conference, Huang Renxun responded to a series of questions, among which he clearly identified the "good question" as one about why AI PC's sales did not take off in 2024.

Jensen Huang acknowledged that the current situation is indeed disappointing, or in other words, the growth is not as optimistic as in the past.

However, he attributed this to the underdeveloped AI ecosystem on PC terminals.

Huang stated that AI technology was originally developed in a cloud environment, and AI models and their deployed applications are mostly conducted through the cloud via API calls.

However, for many potential AI PC audiences, such as designers, software engineers, creative personnel, and the geek community, the current investment in the AI ecosystem on PC terminals is far less than that of the cloud, and the demand has not yet been met.

Old Huang also emphasized that a positive change is occurring, as Windows PCs are introducing AI technologies originally developed for the cloud into PCs through WSL2 (Windows Subsystem for Linux 2), ensuring that AI capabilities available in the cloud are also being integrated into the PC system ecosystem, and even the complete cloud AI system ecosystem is being brought to personal computers.

Huang's viewpoint was soon posed as a question to Luca Rossi, the head of LENOVO GROUP's AI PC division.

Luca Rossi, Executive Vice President of LENOVO GROUP and President of the Intelligent Device Group (IDG), oversees a business line that includes personal computers, mobile phones, tablets, workstations, and displays... which is one of LENOVO GROUP's core businesses.

Moreover, AI PC is the core of the core.

After nearly two years of comprehensive layout, AI PC has become a new label firmly attached to LENOVO GROUP, and any movement regarding AI PC cannot be ignored by LENOVO GROUP.

So how does Luca view Lao Huang's perspective.

He said Lao Huang was correct, because the PC market in 2024 is indeed relatively stable, and data indicates no significant growth.

However, Luca also emphasized that he is not worried about this, as AI PC is entering an unprecedented catalyzing moment. In addition to the edge system ecosystem issue mentioned by Lao Huang, he also argued from the "replacement cycle" perspective that there are optimistic reasons.

Firstly, the lifecycle of Windows 11 or Windows 10 will end in October 2025, which will inevitably create a large demand for device replacements. In addition, there are 0.4 billion devices that were purchased during the pandemic, which have now been in use for 4 to 5 years, and they are also at the point of needing replacement.

Moreover, and more importantly, a series of core capabilities of AI PC are now ready and will complete the final push during the replacement cycle.

Luca said that the issue facing AI PC is not "whether it will develop," but rather "when it will become widely popular." He is confident about the performance of the AI PC market in 2025 and 2026, when significant growth in the AI PC market will be seen.

Additionally, regarding the application and deployment of AI technology, Luca believes that "hybrid AI" is the definite trend, where some tasks need to be processed in the cloud, while others need to be completed on edge devices.

To elaborate a bit, some users processing low-latency requirements on edge devices or dealing with highly private content may be unwilling to upload this content to any cloud service and would prefer to complete it locally. However, image generation that does not pose privacy risks and requires significant computational power will turn to the cloud.

Overall, Luca believes the moment for AI PCs to be both highly acclaimed and commercially successful is rapidly approaching.

In this process, LENOVO GROUP's PC market share will continue to strengthen. Luca revealed that currently, one in every three activated Windows computers globally is a LENOVO GROUP computer, showing very good momentum.

At the same time, LENOVO GROUP's PCs rank first in both the consumer and commercial markets, with the gap to the second-place competitor continually widening.

Luca predicts that the penetration rate of AI PCs will reach 40%-50% within the next two to three years, and it could even go as high as 80%. It is foreseeable that in the next three to four years, every PC will become an AI PC.

This LENOVO GROUP VP also shared tactical strategies, stating clearly that there will be no price wars but a focus on providing diverse innovative products to meet different layered demands.

He believes the Industry is undergoing changes. Compared to five years ago, today's technology options are more diverse: from having only one or one-and-a-half chip suppliers to now having three or four choices; from X86 architecture to ARM architecture; and the addition of AI Agents, which will present a whole new battleground. LENOVO GROUP believes differentiation can be achieved in this Shanghai New World. Users can choose different chips, AI Agents, and even have more innovation in device forms.

Luca also exhibited rare boldness: which competitor has such a broad product line as LENOVO GROUP? Ranging from Windows to Chrome, to Android, from devices with 6-inch screens to all-in-one devices with 30-inch screens; from portable devices to enterprise-level cloud infrastructure solutions.

He said that LENOVO GROUP has made the most thorough preparations for the AI revolution.

However, on-site, there are still fundamental questions being raised -

Is AI PC or AI Smart Phone a real demand?

Luca laughed. He said he did not think this was a false demand, and the reason is simple: AI PC and AI Smart Phone can give humans 'super abilities', right? They can allow you to complete tasks that previously took 25 minutes or even 2 hours in just 2 minutes. When you press a button, the machine can prepare a PPT that previously took 2 hours in just 2 seconds; this is a kind of human 'super ability'.

It is hard to imagine that such 'super abilities' would be a 'false demand'.

Will AI make PCs say goodbye to keyboards??!

Luca was also asked about how AI continues to transform PCs.

He believes that the current speed of innovation makes many things difficult to predict, and new things and new species are constantly emerging.

However, he is very certain about one trend regarding PCs. He believes that over time, the current limitation of the PC form and development, the "keyboard", may disappear.

He believes that with the development of natural language technology, people will no longer have to rely on keyboards, which will unlock the potential for innovation in device forms.

Additionally, Agents will also be a definite trend.

Luca hinted that next month, there will be an Agent with hybrid orchestration capabilities, with users' personal knowledge base being stored locally on the device.

This Agent, or entry point, has already been showcased externally through the "Xiao Tian" application. Luca has further clarified his hope that Xiao Tian will become the preferred entry point for human-machine interaction, where users can interact with the Internet and ask questions through "Xiao Tian", completing all these tasks.

Moreover, glasses are also viewed as an appealing AI terminal platform.

However, Luca stated that this platform may not mature by 2025, as there are currently many obstacles, such as Battery, Thermal Management, performance, and the design of device forms. These are all issues that need to be addressed.

He also believes that lessons should be learned from past experiences. For example, many years ago, 3D Television was considered a Global trend, and everyone thought that in the future, everyone would buy televisions with 3D glasses. However, it turned out to be one of the biggest failures in the Industry at that time. The reason is that people were unwilling to wear bulky and uncomfortable devices.

If people want glasses to be extremely light and comfortable enough to wear, then the technology required goes far beyond today's level.

In 2025, there will be some progress in AI glasses, but the market will still be very small, just starting out. Certain application scenarios may be more mature, while others will be less so.

For example, a more mature application scenario may be a productivity setting when performing specific tasks in a factory or assembly line. In these scenarios, wearing glasses is not for Entertainment but to complete work tasks. You might only need to wear them for one hour, but they can significantly enhance your work value. Therefore, such scenarios are feasible.

There is also a scenario aimed at 'geek' users. The number of this type of user will not reach millions, but may only be hundreds of thousands; however, they are very passionate about this technology and are willing to use it even if the device is not particularly comfortable.

So, if asked whether AI glasses can compete with Smart Phones and become a major platform for hundreds of millions of users.

Luca's answer is affirmative, but it will not be in 2025 or 2026. That is a more long-term vision, requiring technology to truly mature.

Editor/lambor