此前，日本央行官员曾多次表示，在全日本范围内，实现持续且广泛的工资上涨，是进一步收紧货币政策的先决条件。而如今，这份地区经济报告显然表明，这一先决条件似乎正逐步达成。① The Bank of Japan released a report stating that many companies believe it is necessary to continue raising wages, implying an increased possibility of interest rate hikes; ② The Bank of Japan has also upgraded the economic assessments of two regions, stating that the economies of the remaining regions are moderately recovering or rebounding; ③ The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting from January 23 to 24, with analysts expecting an announcement of a possible interest rate hike.
According to China Finance News on January 9 (edited by Liu Rui), the Bank of Japan released its regional economic report this Thursday. The report shows that due to structural labor shortages, many Japanese companies believe it is necessary to continue raising wages, which means that the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is increasing in the near term.
Are Japanese companies considering raising salaries?
The Bank of Japan wrote in the report that some companies are already considering this year's salary increase, indicating that confidence in continuing last year’s significant salary increases is gradually strengthening.
Previously, officials from the Bank of Japan had repeatedly stated that achieving sustained and widespread wage increases across Japan is a prerequisite for further tightening monetary policy. Now, this regional economic report clearly indicates that this prerequisite appears to be gradually being met.
The Bank of Japan also added in the report that, due to Japanese companies seeking to pay higher wages, price increases are expanding in many regions of Japan.
The Bank of Japan stated that some companies have indicated that they have not yet decided on this year's salary increase, while other smaller companies remain cautious about raising salaries due to concerns about the impact of rising costs on profits.
"Overall, many companies believe it is necessary to continue raising wages," the Bank of Japan stated in its announcement.
Is the interest rate hike imminent?
The Bank of Japan will hold a policy-making meeting from January 23 to 24, and the report released this Thursday will be one of the factors they carefully study.
Given that this report shows Japanese companies are likely to continue raising wages, some Analysts expect that the Bank of Japan is very likely to announce an interest rate hike this month.
In this report, the Bank of Japan also upgraded its economic assessment for two of Japan's nine regions, while maintaining the economic assessment for the remaining regions, stating that these regions' economies are gradually recovering or bouncing back.
In March 2024, the Bank of Japan ended years of negative interest rates and raised the short-term interest rate target to 0.25% in July 2024.
However, since then, the Bank of Japan has temporarily halted further interest rate hikes. Last month, the Bank of Japan decided to keep the interest rate unchanged, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated at that news conference that he wanted to wait for more data to determine whether the trend of wage increases would expand to more companies in the 2025 salary negotiations between businesses and labor unions.
From the current data, the path to an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan seems to be very smooth: Wage data released earlier this Thursday indicated that Japan's basic wages increased by 2.7% year-on-year in November 2024, the fastest increase since 1992.
The president of a large commercial lobbying group stated this Tuesday that in 2025, large Japanese companies may raise wages by an average of about 5%, the same increase as last year. Currently, the focus of the Bank of Japan is whether the trend of wage increases will spread to smaller regional companies.
Editor/ping
