The China Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Conference analyzed the national passenger vehicle market outlook for January 2025, stating that there will be 19 working days in January 2025, three fewer than in January last year and December last year. The Automobile Industry typically takes an early break before the Spring Festival, so the effective production and sales time in January will be short. January is a time of significant fluctuations in the car market, where external economic conditions and seasonal demand greatly influence the market, especially due to the impact of the Spring Festival.
The Passenger Vehicle Association explains that the adverse effects brought about by changes in the current external environment have deepened. The overall operation of the domestic economy is stable and improving, but challenges and difficulties remain, including insufficient domestic demand and numerous risks. The national scrappage and replacement policies promoting consumer demand in 2024, as well as various local trade-in policies, have exceeded expectations, especially with the retail growth rate for passenger vehicles reaching an extraordinary 14% in the fourth quarter of last year, as some consumers rushed to change cars at year-end, which also impacts the car market at the beginning of 2025. Consumers will make purchases in advance, and given the current transitional policy period, expectations for new policies are high among consumers, leading to weaker retail trends in early January.
To respond to the complex external environment, current regional "two new" policies and the safety net clauses introduced by enterprises continue to support the new car market's activity. January's "open door red" has been a goal that local governments and car companies have worked towards for many years, thus creating a certain level of wholesale turnover; combined with the fact that some enterprises still have a considerable number of Orders waiting to be delivered in the current market. With mutual hedging, it is expected that the year-on-year sales decline in January will not exceed 20%.
