大型化进入瓶颈期，陆风风机价格自2023年初不断走低，2024年9月价格拐点初现，伴随招标高景气，2025年预计陆风整机盈利触底回升。海外政策加码提升海风装机需求，国内整机商在电价、原材料价格和人力成本等方面价格优势明显。主轴方面，铸造主轴在深远海渐成趋势，2025年大兆瓦型号供需偏紧，预计2025-2026年锻造主轴市场规模为68.74/70.52亿元，而铸造主轴市场规模为20.77/22.22亿元。铸件方面，差异体现在工艺水平和规模优势，预计2025-2026年风电铸件市场将从产能过剩向供不应求过渡。Since Q3 of 2024, the constraints on offshore wind have gradually been lifted, and the domestic offshore wind sector is experiencing multiple catalysts, with a promising recovery in industry demand expected; moreover, under the 14th Five-Year Plan, the offshore wind development goals of various provinces and cities are firm, making it bullish on significant increases in offshore wind bidding and installation in 2025, with installed capacity expected to reach 12-15 GW by 2025.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, GF SEC released a Research Report stating that the wind power installation capacity in the first three quarters of 2024 slightly falls short of expectations, and the Industry faces operational pressure due to reduced volumes. According to the 2024 third-quarter report, leading enterprises with core competitive advantages in segments like towers, offshore cables, main shafts/Steel structures, floating offshore wind, and inverters have strong profitability, while the profitability of the complete machine segment has improved. Since Q3 2024, constraints on offshore wind have started to ease, catalyzing multiple factors domestically, and recovery in industry demand can be expected; additionally, under the 14th Five-Year Plan, the offshore wind development goals of various provinces and cities are firm, resulting in a Bullish outlook for the 2025 offshore wind bidding and installation. It is anticipated that offshore wind installation could reach 12-15GW in 2025.
The price of onshore wind has stabilized; large-scale projects in deep waters are gradually advancing, focusing on the complete machine and cast-forged components where structural price increases are occurring.
Large-scale projects have entered a bottleneck period, with onshore wind turbine prices continuously declining since early 2023. A price turning point began to appear in September 2024, along with high bidding activity resulting in an anticipated bottoming out and rebound in profitability for onshore turbines in 2025. Increased overseas policies enhance demand for offshore wind installations, providing clear price advantages in aspects such as electricity prices, raw material costs, and labor costs for domestic manufacturers. Regarding main shafts, cast main shafts are becoming a trend in deep waters; it is expected that the market size for forged main shafts will be 6.874/7.052 billion yuan in 2025-2026, while the market size for cast main shafts will reach 2.077/2.222 billion yuan. In castings, differences lie in process levels and scale advantages, with the market for wind power castings expected to transition from oversupply to a shortage in 2025-2026.
Global offshore wind power is booming, with floating technologies accelerating in deep waters.
Various countries' policies are boosting the enthusiasm for offshore wind, with the Europe and America regions providing significant growth drivers, and Emerging Markets beginning to take shape. The "European Wind Action Plan" opens growth opportunities, with a total cumulative capacity of 16.3GW and a target installation capacity of 60GW by 2030. The significant price increase in UK offshore wind projects also shows a Bullish outlook for accelerated bidding in 2025. Long coastlines and tropical monsoon climates endow Southeast Asia's offshore wind power with vast development potential, with an estimated installation capacity of around 23.9GW in Asia, Africa, and Latin America by 2025. In October 2023, the National Energy Administration announced the organization of cost parity demonstrations for deep sea offshore wind projects, initiating the domestic deep-sea market mainly focused on GW-scale projects, with floating offshore wind reducing costs to facilitate development.
Investment suggestions: The core focus of the investment line is on the wind from the "Two Seas" & anti-deflationary output.
Attention is focused on manufacturers with megawatt production capacity, actively promoting offshore wind deployment and a high proportion of overseas customers. In the complete machine segment, pay attention to Ming Yang Smart Energy (601615.SH), Goldwind Science& Technology (002202.SZ), Sany Heavy Energy (688349.SH), and Windey Energy Technology Group (300772.SZ); in the casting segment, focus on Riyue Heavy Industry (603218.SH), Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material (688186.SH), and Weili Transmission (300904.SZ); in the spindle segment, pay attention to Jinlei Technology (300443.SZ) and Tongyu Heavy Industry (300185.SZ); in the pile foundation and tower segment, focus on Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ), Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ), Titan Wind Energy (002531.SZ), and Shanghai Taisheng Wind Power Equipment (300129.SZ).
For submarine cables, select manufacturers with port and high voltage advantages, focusing on Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (603606.SH), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH), Hengtong Optic-Electric (600487.SH), and Shanghai QiFan Cable (605222.SH); in the converter segment, pay attention to Shenzhen Hopewind Electric (603063.SH); in the transformer segment, focus on Ming Yang Smart Energy (301291.SZ); in the roller segment, pay attention to Zhejiang XCC Group (603667.SH) and Jiangsu LiXing General Steel Ball (300421.SZ); in the blade segment, focus on Sinoma Science & Technology (002080.SZ) and Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology (600458.SH).
Risk Warning
Risks include wind power policies and installation demand falling short of expectations, significant price fluctuations in raw materials, tight supply of Electronic Component, and the development of megawatt technology trends not meeting expectations.
