BOCOM INTL released a report stating that yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the "Implementation of Large-Scale Equipment Updating and Consumer Goods Replacement Policies by 2025," expanding the market for 8 categories of consumer appliances to 12 categories in 2024.

For the first quarter of this year, based on the press conference information, considering the consumption demand during the New Year and Spring Festival, 81 billion yuan has already been allocated for subsidies for replacing old consumer goods. Compared to last year's 50 billion yuan with a subsidy ratio of 20%, it is expected that the first quarter may drive sales of home appliances and digital products to exceed 150 billion yuan, compared to the total retail sales of communication equipment and home appliances of 383.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024. The bank still assumes that online sales channels account for over 60%, estimating Tmall and JD.com to account for 35-40%. In the first quarter, Tmall and JD.com sales driven by home appliance digital product subsidies are approximately 31.5 billion and 36 billion yuan, respectively, which may further boost the growth of platform transaction scale.

The bank expects that the growth rate of revenue for mainland e-commerce platforms this year will range from 8% to 14%. Alibaba's Taotian revenue is expected to accelerate growth driven by the recovery of GMV and an increase in the monetization rate, while JD.com maintains a stable monetization rate and focuses on the continued pull of the national subsidy policy for replacement of electric products.