① Tesla plans to produce thousands of humanoid robots by 2025, increasing production to ten times next year, and in the following year, production will be 100 times that of 2025. ② A day ago, Musk revealed that Tesla is expected to update its humanoid robot in the coming weeks. ③ Tesla's FSD is expected to be safer than human drivers within the next three months, approximately around Q2 of this year.
On January 9, at the CES exhibition, Musk accepted an interview via video live streaming with Stagwell CEO Mark Penn, revealing several key clues regarding humanoid robots and FSD within Tesla's "AI+" layout.
Musk stated that AI cannot only think online from a data perspective; they must act in tangible ways. "This is also why you need robots and autonomous driving."
"Humanoid robots will be the largest product ever; everyone will want to own at least one robot... Unless someone is hiding some (advanced technology), I dare say we have the most advanced and refined robot in the world, with 22 degrees of freedom in its hands, looking just like a human hand."
In terms of capacity planning, Musk also provided specific targets: Tesla plans to produce thousands of humanoid robots, Optimus, by 2025, with initial testing occurring within Tesla's factories. "If all goes well, we plan to increase production to 10 times (that of 2025) next year (2026), which is around 0.05 million to 0.1 million units; in the following year, we will further increase it to 10 times, starting from 0.5 million units."
In other words, if Musk's "vision" can be successfully implemented, the production of Optimus by 2027 will be 100 times that of 2025.
It is worth noting that a day earlier, in Game Live Streaming, Musk stated, "In the coming weeks, we might update Optimus (the humanoid robot); its progress is going very smoothly, and the team is doing a great job."—This update may hope to become what he previously mentioned, "a 'major hardware revision' for Optimus at the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025."
As for the FSD autonomous driving, Musk expects that Tesla's FSD will be able to operate more safely than human drivers within the next three months, approximately around Q2 of this year.
We are confident that the accident probability of FSD will be better than that of experienced ordinary drivers... After that, we will continue to advance, and in the future, FSD may be ten times or even a hundred times safer than human drivers.