Zhito Finance APP has learned that BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that on January 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Strengthening and Expanding the Implementation of Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Product Exchange Policy by 2025," expanding the categories of home appliances in the consumer goods market from 8 to 12 in 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, it is expected that the growth rate of e-commerce platform revenue will be between 8-14%, Alibaba-SW (09988) Tao Tian revenue is expected to accelerate growth driven by the recovery of GMV growth and the improvement of the monetization rate, while JD-SW (09618) maintains a steady monetization rate, with a focus on the impact of the continuation of the old-for-new state subsidy policy on the related categories of electronic products.

Bocom International's main points are as follows:

Event:

On January 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Strengthening and Expanding the Implementation of Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Product Exchange Policy by 2025," which expands the 8 major categories of home appliances in the consumer goods market for 2024 to 12 categories, adding Microwave, water purifier, dishwasher, Rice Cooker, and increasing the Air Conditioner subsidy to 3 items, still according to the subsidy standard of 20% for Grade 1 energy efficiency and 15% for Grade 2 energy efficiency, and implementing new subsidies for mobile digital products, providing a 15% subsidy for individual consumers purchasing mobile phones, tablets, and Asia Vets smartwatches (unit price not exceeding 6000 yuan) (see the original text for details and subsidy rules).

2024 old-for-new data:

Since the implementation of the old-for-new subsidy policy in August 2024, data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that it has driven sales of related products, such as home appliances, by over 240 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) throughout 2024, with the subsidy amount estimated to be about 50 billion yuan. According to data from Star Map, the sales scale growth rate of home appliance categories on e-commerce platforms during Singles' Day Sales exceeded 20%, compared to growth rates of only 2% for large appliances and 5% for Small Appliances in the first three quarters, indicating significant policy-driven effects. The estimated proportion of online platform subsidies is over 60%, with Tmall and JD.com channels accounting for approximately 35-40%. The sales amounts of home appliances on Tmall and JD.com in the fourth quarter are approximately 42.4 billion yuan and 48.5 billion yuan respectively, accounting for about 10% and 7% of the C3C home appliance trading scale on the respective platforms.

Expected for the first quarter of 2025:

According to the introduction at the press conference, considering the consumer demand during the New Year and Spring Festival, subsidies for the replacement of old consumer goods have already been allocated with a budget of 81 billion yuan. Compared to last year's subsidies for home appliances of 50 billion yuan with a 20% subsidy ratio, it is expected that the first quarter could drive sales of home appliances and digital products to exceed 150 billion yuan, compared to the total retail sales of communication equipment and household appliances of 383.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024. The organization still follows last year's assumption, with online sales channels accounting for over 60%, estimating Tmall/JD.com's share at 35-40%, which means that Tmall and JD.com are expected to drive sales of home appliances and digital products to approximately 31.5 billion yuan and 36 billion yuan respectively in the first quarter, or further boost the growth of platform trade volume (the organization currently predicts that Alibaba and JD.com’s e-commerce GMV will increase by approximately 6% and 8% year-on-year, compared to Visible Alpha's forecast of 4% and 9.6%).