高盛相應地將海螺水泥(00914.HK)及中國建材(03323.HK)的評級由「中性」上調至「買入」，中鋁(02600.HK)的評級由「沽售」上調至「買入」；中煤(01898.HK)及鞍鋼(00347.HK)評級由「中性」下調至「沽售」，西部水泥(02233.HK)的評級由「買入」下調至「中性」，同時維持對紫金礦業(02899.HK)的「買入」評級。Goldman Sachs released a Research Report indicating that the acceleration or stabilization of domestic demand, along with a regular recovery in supply, will support corporate product pricing and profit margins, believing that the performance of most Chinese CSI Commodity Equity Index will improve compared to last year.
The bank estimates that China's demand for CSI Commodity Equity Index will generally decline by 3.5% to increase by 3% in 2025, compared to a decline of 10.2% to an increase of 4.4% in 2024, showing significant improvement. Among these, Industrial Metals such as Copper and Aluminum are expected to benefit from policy support for electric vehicles, home appliances, and Consumer Electronics demand growth, as well as robust development of Wind Power and power grids.
The bank also stated that Infrastructure construction may encounter a turning point, with local governments massively increasing debt, benefiting Infrastructure-related CSI Commodity Equity Index, and it is expected that Cement and Steel demand may stabilize for the first time since 2021. Additionally, Goldman Sachs expects that under the background of energy transition, demand for Coal may slow down, reducing spot coal prices by 3% to 13% from 2024 to 2026.
Goldman Sachs correspondingly upgraded the ratings of CONCH CEMENT (00914.HK) and CNBM (03323.HK) from 'Neutral' to 'Buy', and upgraded the rating of Aluminum Corporation of China (02600.HK) from 'Sell' to 'Buy'; downgraded the ratings of China Coal (01898.HK) and Ansteel (00347.HK) from 'Neutral' to 'Sell', and downgraded the rating of WESTCHINACEMENT (02233.HK) from 'Buy' to 'Neutral', while maintaining a 'Buy' rating for Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK).
