中信证券发布研报指出，供需格局缓和叠加事件催化推动氧化铝价格显著走弱。展望2025年，氧化铝价格中枢料将下行；供给约束强化叠加需求改善预期，铝价弹性仍然可期。看好吨铝利润拉阔以及分红和估值逻辑驱动下的铝板块投资价值。Aluminum stocks rose during intraday trading. As of the time of publication, Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600) increased by 4.15%, reaching 4.52 Hong Kong dollars; CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) rose by 2.92%, reported at 11.82 Hong Kong dollars.
According to the Zhitong Finance App, Aluminum stocks rose during the day. As of the time of writing, Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600) increased by 4.15%, trading at 4.52 HKD; CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) rose by 2.92%, trading at 11.82 HKD.
On the news front, recently, the Global Research team of Bank of America published Research Reports indicating that although supply is gradually recovering, the tight supply issue of bauxite in the Industry will not be completely resolved in the near future, and the supply of alumina may remain tight until the first quarter of 2025. Although China will bring 12.3 million tons of new alumina capacity into Operation by 2025, it is estimated that only 6 million tons of bauxite resources are secured, meaning that the remaining capacity may face obstacles upon startup. Therefore, bauxite may become a cost support for alumina next year.
CITIC SEC released Research Reports pointing out that the easing of supply and demand patterns combined with event catalysts has led to a significant weakening of alumina prices. Looking ahead to 2025, the average price of alumina is expected to decline; the strengthening of supply constraints paired with improved demand expectations may still allow for some elasticity in aluminum prices. There is optimism about the expansion of profit per ton of aluminum and the investment value of the aluminum Sector driven by dividend and valuation logic.
