On January 9, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin dropping to $0.093 million within 24 hours, then briefly recovering to $0.095 million. As of the time of writing,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$it fell 0.77% to $94,330, a decline of 1.5% over 24 hours; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$it fell 0.05% to $3,325.77.

Key focus

• Fidelity: More countries and central banks are expected to purchase Bitcoin in 2025.

Fidelity Digital Assets predicts that 2025 will be a turning point for Bitcoin adoption, as more countries, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries are expected to purchase Bitcoin to build strategic reserves. The report notes that with rising inflation, currency depreciation, and expanding fiscal deficits, allocating Bitcoin may better respond to macroeconomic headwinds than not allocating it. Fidelity Analyst Matt Hogan stated that Bitcoin, as a strategic asset, may attract more countries to adopt accumulation strategies, even though some countries may secretly purchase to avoid pushing market prices higher.

Fidelity Digital Assets analysts predict that BTC being included in the strategic reserves of multiple countries could significantly boost the cryptocurrency market in 2025. They believe that inspired by the successes of El Salvador and Bhutan, governments may secretly begin to accumulate digital Assets to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

• Biyond co-founder: If Bitcoin falls below 94,000 USD, it may drop to 81,000 USD within five weeks.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of 92,500 USD, and analysts warn that if the 90,000 USD support level fails to hold, prices may continue to decline in the short term. Biyond co-founder Burkan Beyli stated in an interview that if Bitcoin falls below 94,000 USD, the next target is to reach 81,000 USD within five weeks.

To realize this bearish scenario, Bitcoin needs to close below 95,180 USD by the end of next week. When the CPI data is released, short sellers may take action. Overall, there is a bearish outlook for Cryptos in the short term (4 to 5 weeks), but still a bullish stance in the long term, as it is expected that after Trump's return to power, the DXY will correct.

• Bitfinex Analyst: The seller's market is shrinking, and Bitcoin may not see a significant decline in the short term.

A Bitfinex analyst stated that Bitcoin's price may not experience a significant decline in the short term, as sell-offs in the cryptocurrency exchange are "rapidly decreasing," and the number of sellers is sharply declining.

Data shows that the Bitcoin liquidity inventory ratio (which measures how long the current supply can meet demand across exchanges) has dropped from 41 months in October 2024 to just over 6.5 months (consistent with the rebound trend in the first and fourth quarters of 2024), which is bullish for cryptocurrency traders, as supply tightening creates a sense of scarcity in the Assets, indicating that liquidity availability shrinks during periods of strong market activity, thereby typically driving up prices.

• Analyst James Van Straten: Rising global Treasury Notes Yield may prevent further increases in Cryptos.

Analyst James Van Straten stated that since the end of 2024, the Cryptos market has been in a Bullish trend, but the rising trend of global government Bonds yields seems to have become hard to ignore.$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$Considered the global standard benchmark, as of Wednesday, the yield has risen to 4.70%, close to a multi-year high, increasing by more than 100 basis points since the Federal Reserve first cut the federal funds rate in September. Moreover, the yield on 30-year United Kingdom government Bonds rose to 5.35% this Wednesday, the highest level since 1998. Since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September, this yield has increased by 105 basis points.

• Report: In 2024, several publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies have increased their BTC holdings and expanded their AI Business to achieve Business diversification.

According to a report published by NiceHash and Digital Mining Solutions on January 7, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies have followed in the footsteps of $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$to increase their Bitcoin treasury holdings. The report points out: "In 2024, there has been a significant shift in Bitcoin mining companies, with many choosing to retain more of their output in Bitcoin or not sell at all." Mining companies may have various reasons for not selling Bitcoin, including the expectation of further appreciation of BTC prices or strengthening their balance sheets, as well as hedging against currency depreciation.

The report mentions,$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$、$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$and $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$ Using borrowed funds to increase Bitcoin holdings has further expanded their treasury strategy. Of the 16 largest Bitcoin holding companies, 4 are mining companies. The report states that apart from the core mining business, by 2024, some mining companies will 'diversify further into high-performance computing and AI fields, generating predictable income streams to buffer mining volatility.'

• The Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise comments on the Czech strategic Bitcoin reserve plan: The domino effect has started.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, responded to the news of the Czech Republic's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. Hougan had previously predicted that this year the adoption of Bitcoin by various countries would significantly increase, noting, 'The dominoes have begun to fall.'

According to news yesterday, Aleš Michl, the president of the Czech National Bank (CNB), stated that they are considering Bitcoin as part of the diversification of Forex reserves. However, CNB currently does not plan to immediately purchase crypto assets, and future adoption still requires the approval of the Board of Directors. Meanwhile, CNB plans to continue promoting reserve diversification by purchasing Gold, with the target of increasing Gold holdings to 5% of total Assets by 2028.

• The research director of CryptoQuant stated: The Bitcoin pullback has significantly reduced the unrealized profits of traders, but the market adjustment falls within a healthy scope.

CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno posted on the X platform stating that the current pullback in Bitcoin's price has caused a significant drop in on-chain traders' unrealized profit margins after Bitcoin previously surpassed $0.1 million. Analysts indicate that such a pullback after a substantial increase is a normal phenomenon that helps the healthy development of the market. Currently, the realized price for traders (which typically serves as price support during bull markets) is approximately $0.088 million, while Bitcoin's current price is about $0.093 million.

• A Nansen analyst noted: Crypto investors are looking for new developments to 'drive the bull market', including news that inflation and the labor market in the USA are cooling down.

Aurelie Barthere, the chief research analyst at Nansen, stated that crypto investors are seeking new developments to 'drive the bull market'. This will include news about cooling inflation and the labor market in the USA, and possibly the future direction of policies from the Trump administration. However, she expects the market to continue to fluctuate until there is further clarity.

We expect the labor market in the USA to continue to weaken, which should limit U.S. interest rates and help Cryptos (including the price of XRP that follows the same trend) to rise. 'Meeting Trump before his inauguration is definitely a bullish signal,' Barthere stated.

• The chairman of the U.S. CFTC emphasized cryptocurrencies in his speech before leaving office and highlighted the necessity of the CFTC as its regulatory body.

Rostin Behnam, the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will resign from his position on January 20, paving the way for future appointees of elected President Donald Trump. In his last public speech at the Brookings Institution this week, he extensively discussed cryptocurrencies and the need to elevate the CFTC as its regulatory body.

Rostin Behnam stated that Cryptos "have dominated every period of my tenure." He said, "Due to the lack of federal legislation, concerns about customer protection, the increase in fraud and market abuse, broader market resilience, and even financial stability are intensifying. We have seen this historically, where we placed a significant amount of financial business outside of supervision and accountability, and time and again, the ultimate outcome was disastrous." He also urged the protection of investors "eager to include digital asset products in their portfolios."

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Editor/Rocky