Jinwu Financial News | BOCOM INTL stated that on January 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Strengthening and Expanding the Implementation of Large-scale Equipment Updating and Consumer Goods Replacement Policy by 2025", expanding the eight major categories of household appliances in the consumer goods market in 2024 to twelve categories, and implementing a 15% subsidy for mobile digital products.
The bank pointed out that considering the consumption demand for New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, a replacement subsidy fund of 81 billion yuan for consumer goods has already been allocated. The bank expects that in the first quarter, sales of categories such as household appliances and digital products could exceed 150 billion yuan, estimating that the subsidy will boost Tmall/JD.com household appliance and digital sales to approximately 31.5 billion and 36 billion yuan respectively, potentially further driving growth in platform trading volume.
Looking ahead to 2025, the bank expects e-commerce platform revenue growth to be in the range of 8-14%. Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall revenue is expected to accelerate growth driven by the recovery in GMV and an increase in monetization rate. JD.com’s monetization rate remains stable, with attention on the continuation of national subsidies for old-for-new policies' impact on electronic categories. The PDD Holdings' hundred billion reduction policy has a short-term impact on the monetization rate, while Kuaishou continues to be affected by industry competition.
