In the morning of the 9th, pay attention to the following three points in the transaction.

■Caution over tariff risks from the Trump administration, but maintaining a stance of waiting for a dip.

■ABC Mart reports a 15.6% increase in operating profit for Q3 to 48 billion yen.

■Focus materials for the morning session: Mitsui O.S.K. Lines to build up to four ammonia ships with an investment of 100 billion yen.

■Caution over tariff risks from the Trump administration, but maintaining a stance of waiting for a dip.

On the 9th, the Japanese stock market is likely to show a strong sense of stagnation, but a sturdy bottom may be recognized. In the US market on the 8th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 106 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 10 points. The 9th is a day of mourning for former President Carter, leading to a market closure, and with the announcement of US employment statistics coming up this weekend, the adjustment of positions is expected to be dominant. In addition, it was reported by CNN that the incoming US President Trump is considering declaring a national emergency to introduce a new tariff program, which became a burden as US long-term interest rates rose. The Chicago Nikkei 225 Futures were down by 25 yen from Osaka at 39,935 yen. The yen exchange rate is fluctuating around 158.20 yen per dollar.

The Nikkei Average is expected to start slightly lower, following the movements of the Chicago Futures. Since the 9th is a holiday in the US, it is believed that the inflow of overseas funds will be limited, leading to a potentially uncertain market direction. Yesterday, NVIDIA's decline was notable, while the high-tech stocks like Tokyo Electron <8035> and Advantest <6857>, which were under scrutiny for their impact, showed limited influence, with Advantest updating its highs from last year. Although profit-taking from a sense of accomplishment may occur temporarily, if the sturdiness of semiconductor stocks is observed, buying aimed at waiting for dips may likely increase.

Moreover, due to the caution regarding tariff risks under the Trump administration, US long-term interest rates are rising. It is expected that trades aiming at the Japan-US interest rate gap and the financial sector may attract funds due to improved profit margins, thus a general sense of sturdiness in the market may be recognized. The Nikkei Average may encounter selling aimed at waiting for a rebound around 0.04 million yen, but as it approaches the area around 39,780 yen where the +1σ of the Bollinger Band is positioned, buying in anticipation of subsequent rebounds should be considered.

As for stock selection, there is a tendency to check the sturdy bottom of high-tech stocks as well as within the financial sector and other domestic demand-related areas, likely skewing towards dividend-focused strategies with expected inflows from NISA funds. Additionally, with limited market participants, stocks with themes such as AI-related ones may attract short-term speculative capital led by individuals.

ABC Mart reports a 15.6% increase in operating profit for the third quarter, reaching 48 billion yen.

ABC Mart ＜2670＞ announced its third-quarter results for the fiscal year ending February 2025, with revenue up 9.8% year-on-year to 277 billion 78 million yen, and operating profit up 15.6% to 48 billion 1 million yen. Sales to inbound (visiting foreigners) were strong, and high-priced products such as hands-free shoes and jackets performed well. The full-year performance forecast for the fiscal year ending February 2025 remains unchanged.

■ Key materials for the first half of the trading session

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose (42,635.20, +106.84).

• 1 Dollar = 158.30-40 Yen

• VIX Index decreased (17.70, -0.12)

Active share buybacks

• The Tokyo Stock Exchange's request for corporate value enhancement

MOL (Mitsui O.S.K. Lines) will build up to four ammonia carriers, investing 100 billion yen.

Sumitomo Electric Industries is establishing a new factory for electrical line coverings in Osaka, with increased orders in Europe.

Panasonic Holdings is entering the whole-house air conditioning market for residences in the USA, focusing on energy efficiency and minimal temperature variation.

Sumitomo Rubber Industries has acquired trademark rights for 'Dunlop' for global expansion, obtaining them for 83 billion yen targeting Europe and the USA.

Nagase & Co. is partnering with E-GRIS to streamline raw material development.

Hino Motors is automating the entry and exit management of logistics trucks at two factories.

Sakai Heavy Industries is launching electric hand roller rentals, designed for quiet operation, suitable for urban and nighttime construction.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011> demonstrates drone nighttime surveillance on highways.

Minebea Mitsumi <6479> starts mass production of low-cost power ICs, contributing to multiple control and miniaturization.

Mitsubishi Electric Corp. Unsponsored ADR <6503> increases the insulation voltage of power semiconductor modules to 1.5 times, aimed at industrial equipment such as Railroads.

Taisei Corporation <1801> integrates construction methods for new builds and demolitions, standardizing materials, and shortening construction periods for super high-rise buildings.

AGC <5201> produces ethylene from CO2 with a Canadian startup.

Toa Gosei <4045> establishes a local subsidiary in India.

☆ Morning event schedule

< Domestic >

・08:30 Japan - November total cash salary (Financial Estimates: +2.7% year-on-year, October: +2.2%)

・09:30 Australia - November retail revenue (Financial Estimates: +1.0% month-on-month, October: +0.6%)

・09:30 Australia - November trade balance (Financial Estimates: +5.55 billion Australian Dollar, October: +5.953 billion Australian Dollar)

・10:30 China - December consumer price index (Financial Estimates: +0.1% year-on-year, November: +0.2%)

・10:30 China - December producer price index (Financial Estimates: -2.4% year-on-year, November: -2.5%)