For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Verint Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:VRNT), since the last five years saw the share price fall 56%. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 17% in thirty days.
Since Verint Systems has shed US$120m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Verint Systems moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
It could be that the revenue decline of 3.3% per year is viewed as evidence that Verint Systems is shrinking. This has probably encouraged some shareholders to sell down the stock.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Verint Systems has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Verint Systems stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Verint Systems' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Verint Systems hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -13% exceeds its share price return of -56%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
Verint Systems shareholders are down 2.9% for the year, but the market itself is up 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Verint Systems better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Verint Systems that you should be aware of.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.