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Investors Might Be Losing Patience for Telephone and Data Systems' (NYSE:TDS) Increasing Losses, as Stock Sheds 4.1% Over the Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 8 19:11

The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (NYSE:TDS) share price is up 79% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 24% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! And shareholders have also done well over the long term, with an increase of 60% in the last three years.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 4.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over the last twelve months, Telephone and Data Systems actually shrank its EPS by 589%. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earning in the last twelve months.

So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.

We doubt the modest 0.5% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. Unfortunately Telephone and Data Systems' fell 3.2% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NYSE:TDS Earnings and Revenue Growth January 8th 2025

Take a more thorough look at Telephone and Data Systems' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Telephone and Data Systems the TSR over the last 1 year was 82%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Telephone and Data Systems has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 82% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 10%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Telephone and Data Systems .

We will like Telephone and Data Systems better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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