Citi's wealth management department stated that as the economy continues to expand steadily, U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield may further rise to 5%, which would provide a good opportunity to Buy.
Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist Steven Wieting stated at a press conference in Singapore that it is certainly possible for this year's 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield to approach 5%. "We believe that 5% will be very attractive."
As investors prepare for Trump's policies in a second presidential term to drive up inflation, the benchmark U.S. Treasury yield soared to 4.70% on Tuesday. The resilience shown by the U.S. economy prompted traders to push back the timing of the Fed's next 25 basis point rate cut to July, causing the market to reconsider just how high yields can rise.
The options market also indicates that the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield may soar to 5%, a level last reached in October 2023. The closely watched non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday, and if the data is stronger than expected, it will give Treasury traders another reason to sell.
Wieting did not set 5% as a baseline forecast. The company expects the benchmark yield to be around 4.75% by the end of the year, and the Fed fund rate to be at 3.75%.
Navin Saigal and others at Blackrock also believe that the rise in Treasury yields is attractive.
"The rebound in yields is certainly a bit painful," Saigal, Head of Fixed Income for Blackrock Asia Pacific, said in an interview. "But in some ways, this can also be viewed as a gift - there is still a lot of Cash / Money Market on the sidelines, and now this cash has somewhere to go."