UBS Group released a research report stating a "Neutral" rating for the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388). For the ADT forecasts for this year and next, it has been lowered from 146 billion and 162 billion HKD to 121 billion and 133 billion HKD respectively, to reflect the expected lower index return this year. Correspondingly, the earnings per share forecast has also been reduced by 10% and 9%, with the target price decreased from 346 HKD to 306 HKD.

The bank predicts that the net profit of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing for the fourth quarter of last year will grow by 50% year-on-year to 3.9 billion HKD, which is 5% higher than the market average expectation, mainly due to potentially higher-than-expected net investment income and a decrease in the effective tax rate. It also predicts that quarterly revenue will increase by 34% year-on-year to 6.5 billion HKD, slightly above market expectations. For the full year, the bank estimates that the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing's revenue and net profit will grow by 10% and 11% year-on-year, reaching 22.5 billion and 13.2 billion HKD respectively.

In terms of market transactions, UBS Group estimates that the average daily turnover (ADT) of Hong Kong stocks in the fourth quarter will reach a record 187 billion HKD, an increase of 105% compared to the same period in 2023, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57%. Although the Hong Kong stock market still faces challenges, UBS believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Exchange's implementation of lowering the minimum price fluctuations for Hong Kong stocks at the end of last year can provide support for this year, with a forecasted ADT of 128 billion HKD in the first quarter, indicating a year-on-year growth of 29%.