德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）周二发布的CoTD报告显示，在自1966年以来的14个美联储宽松周期中，10年期美债在目前这个周期中的表现是迄今为止Source: Jinshi Data
Deutsche Bank's strategists believe that the US Treasury bond bulls will face more pain in the future, but all of this will soon come to an end.
A major factor determining market sentiment and performance this year is USA government bonds.
Deutsche Bank's CoTD report released on Tuesday showed that among the 14 easing cycles of the Federal Reserve since 1966, the performance of the 10-year USA bonds in the current cycle is the second poorest so far.
Since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in mid-September last year, the yield on 10-year USA bonds has risen by 91 basis points. The only easing cycle that performed weaker than the current one was in 1981, during which there was significant volatility in the Federal Reserve's policies and rates while Volcker was squeezing inflation.
Before Christmas 2024, Francis Yared of Deutsche Bank discussed that the current interest rate repricing is likely aiming to price neutral rates between 3.75% and 4%, and the Federal Reserve may maintain rates above neutral in 2025.
Interestingly, when the Federal Reserve started its easing policy less than four months ago, the interest rate pricing for the December 2025 contract was 2.80%, but has now risen to 3.94%.
Yared believes that this wave of volatility is largely complete, but considering the supply of government bonds and inflation expectations, the Global term premium is still too low. However, over the past year, the term premium has remained in a narrow historical low Range, so there are no guarantees of major changes.
Most importantly, Arid pointed out at the time that if the term premium returns to the average level between 2004 and 2013, then the yield on 10-year US Treasury Bonds should be about 40 basis points higher. His prediction from last November for 2025 suggested that this year would close about half of that gap.
As we saw last month with the trend of the 10-year US Treasury Bond yield, it has risen by 2 standard deviations within a month (approximately 60 basis points at today's prices). In this situation, the stock market typically struggles.
However, despite the extreme sell-off of US Treasuries, strategists at Deutsche Bank also believe that bond bulls will face more pain in the future, but all of this will soon come to an end.
编辑/jayden
