平安证券研报指出，2024年楼市量价延续调整，2025年全国投资及销售仍将承压。天风证券表示，展望1月，季节性因素叠加春节假期，预计房企销售大概率环比回落，但考虑市场热度余温仍存，同比仍有持平可能，故对基本面短期无需过度悲观，可以核心城市二手量价边际变化作为前瞻指标。交易层面，良好基本面支撑下短期安全边际及配置价值提升，建议关注节后重要会议及“小阳春”等布局窗口。Mainland Real Estate stocks fell collectively. As of the time of writing, SUNAC (01918) dropped 8.15%, trading at HKD 1.69; RONSHINECHINA (03301) decreased by 7.94%, trading at HKD 0.29; SHIMAO GROUP (00813) fell 6.25%, trading at HKD 0.90.
智通财经APP reported that Mainland Real Estate stocks fell collectively. As of the time of writing, SUNAC (01918) dropped 8.15%, trading at HKD 1.69; RONSHINECHINA (03301) decreased by 7.94%, trading at HKD 0.29; SHIMAO GROUP (00813) fell 6.25%, trading at HKD 0.90; R&F PROPERTIES (02777) dropped 4.69%, trading at HKD 1.22.
On the news front, previous data from the China Index Academy indicated that from January to December 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 4,354.73 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%, a reduction of 2.3 percentage points compared to last month. In December alone, sales of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 3.41% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed, with a month-on-month growth of 28.86%. Additionally, according to CRIC data, in December 2024, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a transaction amount of 451.39 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 24.2% and steady year-on-year performance. Cumulatively, from January to December, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a transaction amount of 3,884.02 billion yuan, down 28.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by nearly 2.6 percentage points compared to November.
Ping An Securities Research Reports indicate that the property market will continue to adjust in volume and price throughout 2024, with national investment and sales expected to remain under pressure in 2025. Tianfeng Securities predicts that looking ahead to January, seasonal factors combined with the Spring Festival holiday will likely lead to a sequential decline in real estate company sales; however, given that residual market heat still exists, there remains a possibility of year-on-year stability. Thus, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the fundamentals in the short term. It is suggested to use marginal changes in the volume and price of second-hand properties in core cities as leading indicators. In terms of Trade, with good fundamentals supporting a short-term safety margin and enhanced allocation value, it is advised to pay attention to important meetings and 'little spring' layout windows after the holiday.
