On January 8, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant fluctuations, with Bitcoin briefly returning to $0.1 million before undergoing a sharp decline, now falling below $0.096 million. As of the time of writing, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$it has dropped by 1.41% to $95,591.30, with a decline of over 6% in the past 24 hours; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$it has decreased by 0.8% to $3,354.27.

Key focus

• Bitwise strategist: Trump's crypto-friendly cabinet is about to take office in the White House, and investors are beginning to allocate funds to ETFs.

Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon stated that investors have started to allocate funds to spot cryptocurrency ETFs, anticipating that Trump's pro-crypto administration will take office in less than two weeks. Data shows that up to 2025, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have attracted a total of $1.75 billion in funding.

Juan Leon added: "In terms of the regulatory agenda, it can now be seen that the Trump administration has selected a number of cabinet members, whether at the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Treasury Department, who support Cryptos." Additionally, recent capital inflows have primarily centered on Fidelity's FBTC rather than Blackrock, with 0.37 billion dollars flowing into FBTC on Monday, marking the third-highest daily inflow on record.

• Matrixport: Bitcoin may enter a short-term consolidation phase soon.

Matrixport released a chart today indicating that fluctuations in Global liquidity may exert some pressure on Bitcoin. Historical Data shows that changes in liquidity typically lead Bitcoin price movements by approximately 13 weeks. With the dollar strengthening after Trump's re-election, USD-denominated global liquidity has begun to tighten, suggesting that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase soon.

However, this consolidation is expected to be temporary. Overall, risk assets (especially Bitcoin) continue to demonstrate positive long-term potential. Nevertheless, in a weaker liquidity environment, traders should exercise greater caution, as these Indicators have historically proven to be reliable market barometers.

• JPMorgan: Bitcoin mining profitability rose for the second consecutive month in December.

According to a report by JPMorgan quoted by CoinDesk, Bitcoin (BTC) miner profitability rose for the second consecutive month in December 2024, reaching its highest level since April 2024. Nevertheless, miner daily revenue and gross margin are still 43% and 52% lower than pre-halving levels, respectively. JPMorgan estimates that the average daily block reward income for miners in December was 57,100 dollars per EH/s, a 10% increase from November. Bitcoin hash rate growth slowed, increasing by 6% in December to an average of 779 EH/s, an annual increase of 54%, down from 103% in 2023.

Additionally, the total market capitalization of the 14 publicly traded mining companies tracked by JPMorgan fell by 23% to 28 billion dollars in December, among which$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$Outstanding performance, with an annual increase of 136%, surpassing Bitcoin's approximately 120% increase.

• In December 2024, the purchasing volume of Bitcoin spot ETF is close to three times the monthly production of miners.

According to Cointelegraph, in December 2024, the purchase volume of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached 51,500 BTC, nearly three times the monthly output of 14,000 BTC by miners. Crypto researcher Vivek stated that a supply shock is imminent after observing that the balance on Bitcoin trading platforms has dropped to a new low.

• Bitcoin mining companies listed in the USA have raised over 3.7 billion USD since last November to purchase Bitcoin.

According to the Financial Times, as resource competition intensifies, American Bitcoin miners are accumulating cryptocurrency funds to help them withstand tightening profit margins. This includes$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$、$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$and$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$Companies, including those utilizing the surge in Bitcoin prices, have raised over 3.7 billion USD from investors since last November and then used these funds to purchase Bitcoin. They typically raise funds through zero-interest (or near zero-interest) convertible bonds.

Russell Cann, Chief Development Officer of Core Scientific, stated: "It's not as simple as everyone being happy after the rise in Bitcoin prices. There are still complex challenges regarding profitability and grid access." Miners' plans also include expanding AI capabilities, marking a drastic turnaround in the industry's prospects. The industry has been in trouble over the past eight months following the Bitcoin mining reward halving. Cann also mentioned: "The demand for AI in the USA will greatly impact the scale of Bitcoin mining." He predicted that in the coming years, most of Bitcoin's computational power will come from outside the USA.

• Data: ETF issuers are buying Bitcoin at a pace that is 20 times the rate of mining output.

According to Analyst Shaun Edmondson, Bitcoin ETF issuers purchased over 9,000 BTC on Friday, January 3, and over 9,600 BTC on Monday of the same week. Since the first approval of Bitcoin ETFs, all 12 issuers have become major holders in the industry, and the number of BTC they have purchased in October was equivalent to five times the global mining output, which has now exceeded 20 times, indicating that bearish market signals are likely to lead to increased purchases.

• Analyst: The potential "head and shoulders" pattern for Bitcoin suggests a decline to 0.075 million USD.

Omkar Godbole, a technical analyst from CoinDesk's market team, stated that since late November 2024, the BTC trend has evolved into a "head and shoulders" (H&S) pattern in technical indicators, indicating that the bullish trend will shift from bearish to bullish. Analysts noted that the initial failure to break the 100,000 USD mark in November marked the formation of the first shoulder. This was followed by the head formation, which rapidly fell from the historic high of over 108,000 USD recorded in the second half of December to 92,000 USD.

Meanwhile, the drop of 5% to nearly $97,000 indicates the formation of a right shoulder. If the sell-off continues and the price drops below the neck line (a horizontal trendline connecting the bottoms of the two shoulders), the bearish head and shoulders reversal pattern will be confirmed, and a break below this level may suggest a further decline to around $75,000.

• TD Cowen: It is expected that the Trump administration will relax banking regulations on the use of cryptocurrencies, but caution must still be maintained.

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that the Trump administration might bring positive changes for crypto entities working with banks, but expectations regarding this new regulatory environment should remain 'within reasonable limits.' The Washington research team at TD Cowen (led by Jaret Seiberg) wrote in a report that banks are responsible for complying with anti-money laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) rules and managing risks such as liquidity and concentration.

Analysts stated: 'Even if Trump's regulators are no longer so concerned about the growing connection between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies, this could lead some banks to remain cautious, which is why some banks may still find the risks too great while others may seize the opportunity. Additionally, some crypto entities may refuse any government oversight. This could limit the comfort level for banks in collaborating with them.' Nevertheless, Jaret Seiberg noted that under the Trump administration, the connection between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies will be 'inevitable.'

• CryptoQuant: The Bitcoin premium on Coinbase has turned positive for the first time since December 17, 2024.

CryptoQuant's analysis shows that the positive change in the Coinbase Bitcoin premium since December 17, 2024, is a signal of rising demand from U.S. investors for Bitcoin. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci stated: 'Since the USA approved the spot Bitcoin ETF, the behavior of U.S. investors has been a leading indicator in the cryptocurrency market.'

Data indicates that the behavior of U.S. investors has again shifted towards dominant buying pressure.' Additionally, analysts added that Bitcoin recently broke through the $0.1 million mark thanks to reduced selling pressure from miners and improved profitability for miners.

• The amount of BTC absorbed by Bitcoin ETFs is nearly three times the miner output from December.

According to average data from Apollo and BiTBO, in December, the USA spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed as much as 51,500 Bitcoins, while the miners' output for the month was close to 14,000 Bitcoins, meaning that the purchasing volume of the USA spot Bitcoin ETF was nearly three times the miners' output.

• Santiment: Bitcoin may be gradually decoupling from the conventional volatility trajectory of the global stock market, which is a bullish signal.

The crypto market research agency Santiment posted on the X platform, noting that since two months ago when Trump was elected as the 47th president of the USA, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks has remained high. However, today we observe that Bitcoin is showing a surge relative to the S&P 500 Index (based on its usual volatility range).

For most of the past three years, the image of cryptocurrencies in the minds of most community members has gradually shifted to that of 'high-leverage tech stocks.' However, signs from early 2025 indicate that Bitcoin may be gradually separating from the conventional volatility pattern of the global stock market. Historically, the crypto market often thrives during periods with low or no correlation to the stock market, leading to the most significant bull markets. If Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can achieve strong growth in January without relying on the S&P 500 Index, it will be a strong signal indicating a much higher possibility of reaching historical highs.

• In 2024, ETFs and listed companies bought a total of 859,454 BTC, absorbing 4.3% of the circulating supply within a year.

According to unfolded.data, in 2024, ETFs and listed companies purchased 859,454 Bitcoins. This amounts to absorbing 4.3% of the circulating supply within a year, approximately equivalent to the Bitcoin issuance over the next eight years.

• The chairman of the CFTC in the USA warns about the 'blank' issue of cryptocurrency regulation and announces plans to step down.

According to the Financial Times, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the USA, Rostin Behnam, stated that regulation of digital assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, remains insufficient and concerning. He warned of a regulatory 'blank' in the USA's cryptocurrency market and called for strengthened regulation of digital assets. He will resign on January 20, coinciding with the inauguration day of president-elect Donald Trump.

During Behnam's tenure as the chairman of the CFTC, he promoted the first federal carbon offset guidelines and increased scrutiny on cryptocurrencies and event contracts (such as election betting). He also led the CFTC's lawsuit against Binance, which ultimately resulted in a $4.3 billion settlement. Behnam stated that the CFTC has the capacity to become the regulatory body for digital commodity assets, but most areas of US crypto assets remain unregulated. He emphasized the need for comprehensive and stringent regulations rather than quick fixes. Trump has yet to nominate his successor but has chosen crypto advocate Paul Atkins to lead the SEC.

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