According to data from the Adobe data platform, fueled by widespread discount events, consumer spending in the USA continues to expand, completely shattering the pessimistic expectations of many investment Institutions on Wall Street that spending during the 2024 holiday shopping season would decline. The latest statistics from Adobe show that consumer spending based on E-Commerce in the USA unexpectedly rose by 9% during the 2024 holiday shopping season, reaching a record $241 billion.

The so-called "holiday shopping season" in Western countries refers to the last two months of the year, November and December, encompassing Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas; this period includes many important shopping festivals and major promotional activities in the Retail Trade, making it a key sales period for E-Commerce and retail giants like Walmart and Target, and also crucial for driving the growth of USA's GDP. In the system for calculating USA's GDP, 70%-80% of detailed statistical projects are closely related to consumer spending.

Adobe's statistics indicate that in the last two months of 2024, more than half of online consumer spending was allocated for purchasing electronic products, outfits, and Housewares. In contrast, the categories of groceries and cosmetics saw the highest year-on-year growth rates in spending.

The Adobe analytics team noted: "The significant discounts during the 2024 holiday shopping season attracted consumers who are becoming increasingly sensitive to prices." The company added that sales volumes of products are proportional to the extent of discounts. Adobe stated that, overall, the record online sales during the holiday shopping season in the USA are driven by increased demand rather than by rising prices, which is positive news for the USA economy.

Since 2024, although the pace of price increases in the USA has slowed, it is still on an upward trend. Under the pressure of persistently high interest rates since 2022, some low-income American consumers have significantly reduced their spending, prioritizing purchases of essential consumer goods like food and drinking water. The accumulation of price increases over several years has also created a demand slump for many retailers in the USA, especially those focusing on non-essential consumer goods.

Nevertheless, early statistics show that online sales during Black Friday and the Christmas holidays still indicate robust overall consumer spending in the USA. The GDP NOW forecasting model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve currently expects that, under strong consumer spending stimulation, the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2024 in the USA is likely to achieve a growth of 2.4%, slightly lower than the growth rate in the previous quarter.

In the past few years, although the economic growth rate in the USA has slowed down, it has surprisingly maintained an 'unexpected growth model', and 2024 is no exception. Despite the long-term high borrowing costs in the USA suppressing housing and manufacturing development, leading to a slowdown in hiring activities, the economy in the USA, supported by strong Consumer spending data, is incredibly close to the treasured goal of the Federal Reserve officials regarding the American economy.possibility of a soft landing,”。

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election and the persistently high benchmark interest rates in the USA, significant signs of cooling in the labor market have emerged. However, thanks to an incredibly strong level of consumer spending, the reported economic growth data for the USA in 2024 remains robust, exceeding the outlook for the American economy by all economists at the end of 2023. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the USA is projected to be the best-performing developed economy among the G7 in 2024.

The performance of the USA's economy in 2024 continues to exceed economists' expectations, and the answer lies in the strong American consumers. Although hiring in the labor market has slowed down, wage growth in the USA continues to outpace inflation, and household wealth has reached new records alongside a record-high American stock market, which supports the continued strong expansion of household spending.

Without a doubt, the consistently strong consumer spending in the USA during the Federal Reserve's prolonged maintenance of high interest rates is increasingly driven by high-net-worth individuals who are enjoying the so-called wealth accumulation effect brought about by significant increases in housing prices and the American stock market. However, at the same time, many low-income consumers are relying on credit cards and other loans to support their daily expenses, with some showing significant signs of financial pressure such as increased default and delinquency rates.

Editor/ping