The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that the rapid growth in PV installations has led to an increase in grid consumption, limiting the space for PV growth. The affordability of optical storage, that is, photovoltaic+energy storage achieves power controllability close to thermal power, will drive a new round of PV demand to exceed expectations. The core of this is the PV allocation and storage ratio. Based on electricity balance, consumption capacity, and light storage affordability, an innovative PV installation limit measurement framework was built to measure the upper limit of domestic photovoltaic installed capacity of 281/332/394 GW in 24-26. The upper limit of photovoltaic installed capacity continued to break through as electricity consumption increased and capacity building regulation capacity was built.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

Using consumption to meet demand, the optical storage parity ratio continues to break through to promote the release of consumption potential

The rapid growth of PV installations has led to an increase in grid consumption, limiting the space for PV growth. The affordability of optical storage, that is, photovoltaic+energy storage achieves power controllability close to thermal power, will drive a new round of PV demand to exceed expectations. The core of this is the PV allocation and storage ratio.

Based on China's current PV EPC cost of 2.8 yuan/W and energy storage of 0.8 yuan/Wh, the cost of photovoltaics and energy storage is 0.260/0.326 yuan/kWh, which means that the PV distribution and storage ratio has reached 31.3%, and the 4h time electricity storage cost is equal to the benchmark electricity price for coal combustion. Considering that the price of electricity on the user side is 0.2-0.3 yuan/kWh higher than the power generation side, the overseas gap is even greater, so overall consumer side parity is expected to be the first to arrive, driving distributed optical storage capacity; while it is difficult to achieve fully high photovoltaic storage capacity overseas under the current electricity price system. The cost is more difficult to achieve, but it depends on the technology Increased efficiency and reduced costs, and an increase in the PV distribution ratio will still be a key factor in the new round of demand exceeding expectations.

The increase in electricity consumption load and the construction of regulatory resources are gradually opening up global optical storage and equipment space

Based on electricity balance, consumption capacity, and light storage affordability, an innovative PV installation limit measurement framework was built to measure the upper limit of domestic PV installation capacity of 281/332/394 GW in 24-26. The upper limit of photovoltaic installed capacity continued to break through as electricity consumption increased and capacity building regulation capacity was built. However, considering the actual carrying capacity and policy shift of the power grid, it is estimated that China's PV grid connection scale is 260/240/264 GW, global 483/498/562 GW, +21%/3%/13% year over year; it is estimated that in 24-26, China's energy storage grid connection scale is 93/129/165 GWh, global 187/269/365 GWh, and +74%/44%/36% year over year.

Photovoltaics: demand deceleration, profit restoration, technology upgrade

Global demand: China's consumption is limited, UHV construction falls short of expectations, new energy sources participate in the spot market, and PV installations are expected to decline in 25 years; explosive growth driven by the European energy crisis has subsided and is expected to maintain slight growth in the next few years; US: Increased tariff and policy uncertainty, benefiting from the construction of factories in the US; Asia, Africa and Latin America: Electricity shortage+energy transition growth momentum is strong. Supply and demand cycle: Industry self-regulation has begun, and the profit inflection point of the industrial chain has reached. Technological innovation: Reducing costs and increasing efficiency helps reverse profit margins first, and the industrialization of BC and copper paste accelerates.

Energy storage: The rapid development of new energy sources has spawned demand, and multiple scenarios have led to a turning point. Big storage: Electricity reform is driving a new round of high demand growth in China and Europe; US power grid upgrade+mechanism optimization supports the acceleration of large storage. Industrial and commercial savings: China's timeshare price adjustment+ peak and valley price differentials widen; low electricity prices+small-scale participation in the auxiliary services market in Europe and the US limits economy, and improvements in electricity price policies and market mechanisms are expected to release demand. Household storage: Products focus on regional differentiation, rising demand fluctuations in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and increasing contributions from emerging countries.

Investment recommendations:

Photovoltaic sector: Focus on battery leaders leading N-type technology innovation, Jingke Energy (688223.SH), Junda (002865.SZ), Shijing Technology (301030.SZ), Tongwei (600438.SH), Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ); auxiliary materials and materials that benefit from iterative technology.

Energy storage sector: Focus on leading technology in the field of large storage, Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), Artes (688472.SH), Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693.SZ), Hewang Electric (002335.SZ), Kehua Data (002335.SZ), etc.

Household storage sector: Focus on specific markets and new products such as Deye Shares (605117.SH), Huabao Xinneng (301327.SZ), Aero Energy (688717.SH), Goodway (688390.SH), Hemai Co., Ltd. (), Yuneng Technology (USD), etc. 688032.SH 688348.SH

Risk warning:

Demand falls short of expectations; industrial chain price risk; risk of worsening competition pattern, etc.