另外，摩根士丹利预计2025年第一季度台积电毛利率可能下滑至57%左右。该行预计毛利率第四季度将达到59.3%，处于指引区间的高端。然而，预计毛利率将在2025年第一季度回落到57%的水平，原因是：1)季节性：正如该行指出的那样，2024年下半年利润率提高的约1-2%归因于紧急订单和更高的晶圆厂利用率，这在2025年第一季度不会重演。2)一些客户对价格调整的抵制：该行了解到一些主要的人工智能芯片客户正在抵制晶圆价格上涨。再加上苹果(AAPL.US)的价格调整(通常从年中开始出现)，该行预计从2025年开始，综合平均售价涨幅仅为3-4%，略低于最初估计的4-5%。3) 海外晶圆厂利润摊薄：据该公司称，美国和日本晶圆厂的利润摊薄始于2024年底，因此预计2025年第一季度利润摊薄约为2%。Morgan Stanley released a Research Report, maintaining a "Shareholding" rating for Taiwan Semiconductor stocks, with a Target Price of 1,388 New Taiwan Dollars.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley released a Research Report, maintaining a "Shareholding" rating for Taiwan Semiconductor stocks, with a Target Price of 1,388 New Taiwan Dollars. The firm noted that although the demand for AI continues to grow in the long term, the first quarter of 2025 may be a slow start for Taiwan Semiconductor, followed by a Global inventory replenishment of Semiconductors in the second half of the year.
The report stated that considering the seasonality of the iPhone, it is expected that Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue in the first quarter of 2025 will decline by 5% quarter-on-quarter. Taiwan Semiconductor will announce its fourth-quarter results on January 16 and provide guidance for the first quarter. In fact, Taiwan Semiconductor is averaging a 3-4% increase in wafer prices, while also gaining more outsourcing from Intel (INTC.US) for the 3nm Lunar Lake CPU. However, considering the limited upside for iPhone 16 sales, the firm expects wafer capacity for 3nm to be reduced by approximately 0.01-0.015 million in the first quarter of 2025, which means that the capacity for the A18 chip will be around 4 million to 6 million. Currently, Wall Street generally anticipates figures similar to those estimated by the firm, but with rising wafer prices, investors surveyed by the firm seem to expect only a slight decline in revenue quarter-on-quarter for the first quarter of 2025.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley expects that Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin in the first quarter of 2025 may decline to around 57%. The firm predicts that the gross margin will reach 59.3% in the fourth quarter, at the high end of the guidance range. However, it is expected that the gross margin will drop back to 57% in the first quarter of 2025, due to: 1) Seasonality: As the firm pointed out, the increase in profit margins of about 1-2% in the second half of 2024 is attributed to urgent Orders and higher wafer fab utilization, which will not recur in the first quarter of 2025. 2) Resistance from some customers to price adjustments: The firm learned that some major AI chip clients are resisting the rise in wafer prices. Coupled with Apple's (AAPL.US) price adjustments (which usually appear in the middle of the year), the firm expects that from 2025 onward, the overall average price increase will be only 3-4%, slightly lower than the initially estimated 4-5%. 3) Profit dilution from overseas wafer fabs: According to the company, profit dilution from U.S. and Japan wafer fabs began at the end of 2024, thus it is expected that there will be a profit dilution of about 2% in the first quarter of 2025.
Looking ahead to the growth, gross margin, and capital expenditure expectations for 2025, Morgan Stanley stated that Taiwan Semiconductor typically provides conservative guidance at the beginning of the year, followed by delivering better-than-expected results. The firm believes that in dollar terms, the company is expected to see a year-on-year growth rate of 21-23% in 2025 (with the market generally expecting 27-29%), and a gross margin exceeding 53% (market expectation is 57-59%). As for capital expenditures in 2025, the firm expects it to be 38 billion New Taiwan Dollars, as further expansion of 2nm/3nm capacity is unlikely after Intel's restructuring. Finally, the firm also maintains the 2025 CoWoS capacity forecast at 80kpwm, reaching 100kwpm by 2026.
Overall, the firm expects that cloud AI will account for 25% of Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue in 2025, which should still be supply-driven. Once the chip inventory is fully digested and/or the AI PC/Smart Phone triggers a replacement cycle, a broader Semiconductor cycle may resume. The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor is at 18 times the EPS for 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26% for revenue from 2025-2026, making Taiwan Semiconductor still attractive in the firm's view.
