智通财经APP获悉，乘联会秘书长崔东树发文称，2024年中国车市零售依托春节较早因素实现预期中的上半年较强走势。数据显示，2024年11月新能源车市场零售1.26 million辆，同比增速达49%，呈现出强势增长的良好状态，连续4个月创出历史各月度新高，新能源的增长动力持续较强。2024年国内新能源格局激烈变化，比亚迪(002594.SZ)、吉利、奇瑞等传统车企头部效应日益明显，中低端相对较强。小鹏、蔚来、理想等新势力总体较好，五菱、吉利、长安等传统车企新能源11月走势很强。

1. 2024年11月新能源车批发很强

2024年11月新能源乘用车批发销量达到1.43 million辆，超越历史最高水平。由于春节因素和降价干扰，1月的新能源走势较弱，2月回落较大,年初的新能源走势不强。3-8月市场逐步恢复增长，政策补贴驱动9-11月环比增长巨大，持续突破月度历史高点。

Since 2023, the decline in raw materials such as lithium and nickel has led to a downward trend in the price of power batteries. The low sales volume at the beginning of the year helped companies reduce production and clear historical inventory. Starting in March, there was a continuous increase in sales of new products.

In November, wholesale of Electric Vehicles reached 1.43 million units, with a year-on-year growth rebounding to 49%, which is a good performance compared to the growth rate of 35% from January to October, showing a strong increase with a quick rise of 4% month-on-month. The wholesale growth in November is relatively faster than retail, reflecting a noticeable market-driven production and sales effect.

2. National new energy penetration rate - retail

In November 2024, the retail market for Electric Vehicles reached 1.26 million units, showcasing strong growth and setting new monthly historical records for four consecutive months.

Due to the issuance of new license plates in Peking, the effect of the increased demand from May to July is clearly noticeable, and some price-watching groups have begun to purchase vehicles. The effects of the scrappage and replacement policy starting in August are gradually becoming apparent, with high subsidies for small New energy vehicles, increasing enthusiasm for purchasing New energy.

In 2023, a total of 7.75 million units were retailed, a year-on-year increase of 36%. From January to November 2024, the retail of Electric Vehicles reached 9.59 million units, showing a relatively strong increase of 41%, which is higher than the 35% growth rate in 2023, indicating a very good performance.

The performance in November, with a growth rate of 49%, is outstanding, achieving three consecutive years of high growth in Electric Vehicles, and the growth momentum of New energy Fund remains strong.

3. Characteristics of passenger vehicles using new energy

Recently, the share of hybrid vehicles in the private market has continued to rise, while the demand for hybrid vehicles in the rental market has been shrinking, making Electric Vehicles the best choice for rentals. The proportion of Electric Vehicles in rentals in November has significantly decreased compared to the first half of the year.

4. The performance of the regional market is gradually improving.

The recent performance of the New energy Fund Passenger Vehicle sector has been strong, mainly due to new breakthroughs in the northern regional markets, with increased shares of new energy in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, and Southwest regions. The increase in hybrid vehicle sales has driven the electrification transition breakthrough in markets with less robust consumer capacity.

5. The performance of urban and rural markets is gradually improving.

In recent years, the demand for New Energy Passenger Vehicles has been strong mainly in cities with purchase restrictions, but it has been consistently declining recently. Excluding the purchase restriction factors in major cities, the proportion of pure electric New Energy Passenger Vehicles in total sales in major cities in 2024 has decreased by 4 percentage points compared to 2023, indicating that the market sales of New Energy Vehicles in major cities are gradually slowing down, and the overall vehicle and fundamental population scale constrain the demand. Due to the large population base and poor public transport, the market demand in medium-sized cities has been strong recently, and the New Energy market in small cities and rural areas is gradually starting up.

6. Regional penetration rate of pure electric Passenger Vehicles - November.

Currently, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in restricted purchase cities has remained stable, increasing from 26% in November 2021 to 34% in 2024. However, due to the Top Reversal of pure electric vehicles in Shanghai, the performance of pure electric vehicles in restricted purchase cities is average. The sales proportions of pure electric vehicles in large, medium, and small cities in non-restricted purchase areas are basically the same; this year the medium cities' proportion rose to 31% in November, while the rural market's penetration rate increased to 28%.

7. Regional penetration rate of plug-in hybrid Passenger Vehicles - November.

The penetration rate of plug-in hybrids continues to grow across various markets nationwide, especially in mega cities, where the market share of plug-in hybrids reached 23% in November this year. In medium and small cities, the market share of plug-in hybrids also shows a continuous upward trend, and the gap in penetration rates among different types of cities is relatively narrowing. Due to the influence of plug-in hybrid licensing policies, in November, plug-in hybrids only accounted for 10% in Shanghai, an increase of 5% from last year, still the lowest nationwide.

Due to the differences in the promotion of subsidy policies, the penetration rate of plug-in hybrids in November decreased by 1.5% compared to October, with a significant decline in large and medium-sized cities.

8. Monthly sales trend of New Energy in each province.

The sales trends in the regional market are diverging, with some provinces in the central and western regions experiencing rapid growth and strong performance.

9. Market trend in Peking.

The Peking market for Electric Vehicles in 2024 is relatively stable, with sales reaching 0.03 million units in November 2024, situated at a historically high level for the same period, and the license Indicators are fully absorbed.

Since the indicators for Electric Vehicles have been relatively tight since 2018, the market for Electric Vehicles in Peking showed a contrast to the national trend in 2022. Currently, the growth rate is low, and some users who purchased vehicles in 2018 should have changed cars, but the total market volume remains low, which is the result of suppressed consumption due to the pace of issuing indicators.

The sales of Electric Vehicles in Peking performed well in the second half of last year, considering the lack of indicators and limited supply from Tesla, the performance in November in Peking was quite strong. The overall level of Electric Vehicles in Peking is practical, which reflects good household demand.

10. Trends in the New Energy Market in Shanghai.

The new policy trends in the Shanghai market show a significant contrast with the Peking market, with extremely stable trends from 2019 to 2021. A rush for purchases started in December 2022, leading to a sluggish start to the new year, and there has been a significant decline in sales at the beginning of 2024.

In November 2024, sales of Electric Vehicles in Shanghai reached 0.033 million units, a decrease of 27% compared to 0.045 million units in November last year. The Electric Vehicles in Shanghai faced the impact of policy adjustments last year but are gradually recovering. The tightening of the license policy has significantly impacted the Shanghai car market at the beginning of the year, but the market is gradually recovering recently.

11. Trends in the New Energy Passenger Vehicle Market in Restricted Cities.

The performance of Electric Vehicles in restricted cities is relatively strong, reaching a level of 0.288 million units in November 2024, with a good year-on-year growth rate of 59%.

Cumulative sales of Electric Vehicles in 2024 reached a level of 2.34 million units, reflecting the continued growth in demand for purchasing Electric Vehicles in restricted cities.

12. The market trend of New Energy Passenger Vehicles in areas with no purchase and traffic restrictions.

Non-restricted cities refer to areas where RBOB Gasoline vehicles are not subject to purchase or traffic restrictions. Since traditional vehicles are not restricted, the demand for Electric Vehicles in these cities reflects genuine market demand. Currently, non-restricted cities are also experiencing extremely rapid growth, and such cities are relatively widespread across the country, with New Energy Vehicle sales currently showing a relatively high level.

In 2022, the cumulative number of units in non-restricted cities reached a level of 2.73 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96% and showing strong growth characteristics. The performance of Electric Vehicles in non-restricted cities in 2023, with sales of 4.06 million units, was extremely excellent, and the performance in sales of 5.61 million units from January to November in 2024, with a growth rate of 57%, was very strong.