1）坦克：12 月销售2.2 万台，环比+8%、同比+26%，根据零售数据我们预计环比增长主要来自国内市场坦克300、坦克500PHEV。1 月1 日坦克500Hi4Z 正式上市，指导价36.38 万元，定位中大型豪华电混SUV，搭载2.0T 发动机+前后大功率驱动电机、59.05kwh 大容量电池包、功率分流+3 挡前驱模块、CoffeeOS 3 智能座舱等，上市24 小时订单超6 千台，我们认为后续有望为坦克品牌贡献3 千台以上月销增量；Incident: According to Great Wall Motor's announcement, wholesale sales volume in December was 0.135 million units, +6% month-on-month and +20% year-on-year; cumulative sales volume in 2024 was 1.23 million units, or +0.21% year over year.
Sales performance in December was impressive, with Tank, Haval, and Wei brand all achieving year-on-month growth.
In December, the wholesale volume of new energy was 0.042 million units, +17% month-on-month, +42% year-on-year, and the wholesale volume of fuel vehicles was 0.093 million units, +2% month-on-month and +13% year-on-year. According to retail data estimates, in December, the company's retail sales volume of passenger cars was about 0.081 million units, +19% month-on-month. Among them, retail sales of new energy passenger cars were about 0.034 million units, +8% month-on-month. The combined sales volume of pickups is basically consistent with export sales and wholesale sales, so we do not expect an increase in inventory levels.
1) Tanks: Sales of 0.022 million units in December, +8% month-on-month and +26% year-on-year. According to retail data, we expect the month-on-month growth mainly from 300 tanks and 500PHEVs in the domestic market. On January 1, the tank 500Hi4Z was officially launched, with a guide price of 0.3638 million yuan. It is positioned as a medium to large luxury electric hybrid SUV, equipped with 2.0T engine+front and rear high-power drive motors, 59.05kwh high-capacity battery pack, power divider+3-speed front-wheel drive module, CoffeeOS 3 smart cockpit, etc., and orders exceed 6,000 units in 24 hours. We believe it is expected to contribute more than 3,000 units to the tank brand in the future;
2) Haval: Sold 0.083 million units in December, +6% month-on-month and +27% year-on-year. Among them, Raptors sold 0.013 million units, +20% month-on-month, and achieved 10 consecutive monthly sales increases with the differentiation advantage of light off-road products; Big Dog sold 0.02 million, +12% month-on-month, achieving 7 consecutive monthly sales increases; subsequent Haval brands still have Raptor facelift and Fierce Dragon Max facelift, etc., which are worth looking forward to;
3) Wei Brand: sold 8,808 units in December, +25% month-on-month, +151% year-on-year, of which Blue Mountain contributed 8057 units, +24% month-on-month. As the company's marketing results continue to show, product reputation gradually accumulates, and intelligent implementation accelerates, the new Blue Mountain is expected to maintain steady monthly sales of more than 6,000 units; 4) Euler: 4740 units sold in December, -18% month-on-month, -53% year-on-year; 5) Pickup truck: 0.016 million units sold in December, +2% month-on-month, +1% year over year; June) Exports: December sales 0.041 million units, -3% month-on-month, +22% year-on-year. The cumulative annual export sales volume reached 0.45 million units, +43% year-on-year. We believe that the month-on-month decline in December was mainly affected by overseas holidays and was a normal seasonal fluctuation. Since December, outings have progressed steadily, and the 700Hi4-T tank was launched in Kazakhstan.
Outlook: Comprehensive transformation is beginning to bear fruit and enter a new stage of growth
1) The pan-off-road market space is large, and Hi4Z is expected to “reinvent tanks”. On strong off-road tracks, the sales performance of existing models such as the 800Hi4-T tank is expected to contribute to growth; on pan-off-road tracks, Hi4Z technology has the characteristics of longer battery life, stronger power, lower fuel consumption, and better smoothness compared to the Hi4T, and products such as the tank 500Hi4Z are expected to broaden the target group and accelerate penetration into the urban SUV market, contributing significantly to profit elasticity.
2) The transformation is beginning to bear fruit, and the mainstream market is expected to break through. The company has refined polished products, accurate omni-channel marketing, and established direct channels to empower the brand. Raptor and New Blue Mountain have achieved initial success. We believe that the domestic business is expected to reach an inflection point with the subsequent launch of various new models of Haval and Wei brands.
3) Complete range, rich technical reserves, great export potential. The company has rich stocks of categories (pickups, tanks) and power types (HEVs, etc.) and has strong product strength. It is expected that with the introduction and release of subsequent new models and various power types, the localized production and marketing process will accelerate, and monthly sales are expected to continue to rise.
Investment advice: Maintain a “buy-A” rating. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 13.17, 17.55, and 19.66 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current market capitalization PE of 16.4, 12.3, and 11.0 times, respectively. We gave the company a price-earnings ratio of 20 times in 2025, corresponding to a 6-month target price of 41.01 yuan/share risk warning: progress of new products falls short of expectations, sales of new models fall short of expectations; industry price wars continue to intensify, etc.
