CICC published a report indicating that it has reviewed the historical subsidy policies for four-wheeled Consumer goods in Mainland China, estimated the fiscal scale of each round of policies, and designed a calculation framework for the fiscal multiplier, estimating the current multiplier of each subsidy policy as well as the cumulative multiplier within two years after the policy withdrawal. The calculations show that the fiscal subsidy current multiplier is relatively high, providing strong traction for related consumption.

CICC points out that due to the overdraw effect, the cumulative multiplier will gradually drop below 1. In previous rounds, the Consumer subsidy multipliers have trended downward, and an increase in product retention rates may affect the effectiveness of the policies. Generally speaking, more expensive Commodities have higher current fiscal multipliers and lower long-term multipliers, for example, in comparison to Automobiles and home appliances.

Estimates from the bank show that in the last quarter of last year, the trade-in subsidies may have exceeded 110 billion yuan, with a fiscal multiplier around 2.8. This year, the trade-in program is expected to "strengthen and expand," possibly surpassing 2010 to become the year with the highest intensity of subsidies for Consumer goods, which may have a noticeable boost on total retail sales.