国际半导体组织SEMI表示，2024年全球半导体市场预计将实现15%至20%的成长，市场规模将达到6000亿美元，并有望在2030年突破1万亿美元。报道提到，中国晶片制造商的产能年增约13%，达到每月860万片晶圆。内地最大的半导体代工企业中芯国际在2024年也首次跃升为全球第三大晶片代工厂。集团今年第3季度实现收入156亿元，同比增长33%；归母净利润11亿元，同比增长56%；扣非归母净利润9亿元，同比增长32%。本土化需求推动单季收入新高，单价环比显着提升带来毛利大幅改善，毛利率环比增长6.6pct至20.5%。季内，产能环比增长4.73万片至88.4万片等效8寸晶圆，产能利用率为90.4%。晶圆ASP达966美元，同比增长0.5%，环比增长15.5%。展望未来，随着行业周期的进一步回暖，再加上AI带动需求的增长，中芯有望受益于未来低功耗移动IoT以及RAM、BCD等产品中硅含量的增长。国产替代势在必行，集团作为中国大陆地区代工龙头将显着受益。目标价$36，止蚀价$25。Gold News | The Hang Seng Index closed at 19,688 on Monday (6th), down 71 points or 0.36%. The market's total turnover for the day was 121.6 billion yuan. The National Index closed at 7,135, down 0.33%; the Tech Index dropped 0.2% to 4,395. Domestic dining stocks performed relatively weakly. NONGFU SPRING (09633) fell 3.4%; the positive rate of influenza virus in mainland China continues to rise, and flu-related stocks are attracting attention. SHANDONG XINHUA (00719) surged 6.2%;
The Dow Jones closed at 42,706 points on Monday (6th), down 25 points or 0.06%; the S&P 500 rose 0.55% to 5,975 points; the Nasdaq surged 1.24% to 19,864 points. Among the heavyweight stocks, Nvidia's stock price rose 3.4% at the close, reaching a record high of $149.43, with an intraday high of $152.16, approaching the historical intraday high of $152.89; Alphabet increased by 2.7%, while Tesla rose 0.2% after fluctuating. Resource stocks were widely bullish, with copper miner Freeport-McMoRan and Century Aluminum rising 2.3% and 8% respectively. The Asia-Pacific stock market showed mixed results this morning (7th), with the Nikkei 225 Index currently at 39,971 points, up 664 points or 1.69%. The South Korean SSE Conglomerates Index is currently at 2,515 points, up 26 points or 1.06%. Geopolitical factors and central bank holdings suggest paying attention to Gold Concept stocks.
Market Focus: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981)
The international semiconductor organization SEMI stated that the global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 15% to 20% in 2024, reaching a market size of $600 billion, with the potential to exceed $1 trillion by 2030. The report mentioned that the production capacity of Chinese chip manufacturers is increasing by about 13% annually, reaching 8.6 million wafers per month. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, the largest semiconductor foundry in mainland China, is also expected to rise to the world's third-largest chip foundry by 2024. The group achieved revenue of 15.6 billion yuan in the third quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 33%; the net income attributable to shareholders was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56%; the net income excluding exceptional items was 0.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Localization demand has driven a record high in single-quarter revenue, and a significant rise in unit prices has led to substantial improvements in gross margin, with the gross margin increasing 6.6 percentage points to 20.5% quarter-on-quarter. During the quarter, production capacity increased by 47,300 wafers to 884,000 equivalent 8-inch wafers, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.4%. The wafer ASP reached $966, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.5%. Looking ahead, with the further recovery of the industry cycle and the demand growth driven by AI, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation is expected to benefit from future low-power mobile IoT, as well as increases in silicon content in RAM, BCD, and other products. Domestic substitution is imperative, and the group, as a leading foundry in mainland China, will significantly benefit. Target price $36, stop-loss price $25.
(The author is a licensed person of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and does not hold any of the above stocks.)
Author: Dr. Tang Shengxing, Chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association.
