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登康口腔(001328):核心逻辑加速兑现 24Q4有望超预期增长

Dengkang Dental (001328): Accelerated implementation of core logic, 24Q4 is expected to exceed expectations

Cinda Securities ·  Jan 6

Incident: The company's high-frequency data continues to exceed expectations, e-commerce data is growing at an impressive rate, and we expect steady growth in offline channels.

Reviews:

1) Core logic 1: The share of offline is steadily increasing, and the growth rate of online channels is beautiful.

Offline: The offline share of 24H1 Cold Acid increased to 8.6% (+0.5pct over the full year of '23), making it third in the market; the company achieved coverage of hundreds of thousands of retail terminals with high-quality distributors distributed in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and more than 2,000 districts/counties across the country; targeting the broadest county and township market, the company rapidly sank and built channel barriers through the distribution model; implementing the “million-level counties, tens of millions of dealers” strategy, and offline channels continued to grow steadily.

Online: The company's e-commerce team changed at the end of 23, continued to absorb vitality and sufficient combat power; 24 years of vigorous self-broadcast construction, refined management of online product structures, and clearly promoted high-end series strategies online. According to Mama Cicada, the 24-year Leng Sang Ling Douyin GMV was +151% year-on-year, sped up quarterly, and +245% year-on-year in 24Q4. The transformation effect was remarkable.

2) Core logic 2: The product structure continues to be upgraded to drive a rapid increase in gross margin. The company firmly implemented the product promotion strategy of “improving quality, restructuring, and promoting growth”, and the sales share of specialized research platforms and medical research platforms increased rapidly; among them, the proportion of specialized research in offline channels increased steadily, and the share of medical research in online channels increased rapidly; according to Mama Cicada, the 24Q4 Douyin channel medical research series accounted for 65% (24Q1 still low), and the product structure upgrade logic was accelerated; along with the increase in the proportion of high-margin specialty research & medical research series, the company's gross margin was rapidly optimized. 24Q1-3's gross profit margin was 49.3% (+5.1pct compared to +5.1pct), single Q3 The gross margin reached 53.9% (+7.0pct year over year), driving a steady increase in net interest rate.

Profit forecast: We expect net profit to be 0.16/0.21/0.26 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and corresponding PE will be 38.9X, 29.3X, and 23.7X, respectively.

Risk factors: industry competition intensifies, new product development falls short of expectations, channel expansion falls short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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